Power Law & Power Law Floor calculations

power_law.py

"""
    Bitcoin Power Law:
    1.0117e-17 * (days since genesis block)^5.82

    Bitcoin Power Law Floor:
    (power law) * 0.42

    Note: Model projections said to be invalid beyond 2040.
"""
import argparse
from datetime import date
from decimal import Decimal

GENESIS = date.fromisoformat('2009-01-03')
POWER_FACTOR = Decimal('5.82')
POWER_COEFFICIENT = Decimal('1.0117e-17')
FLOOR_MULTIPLIER = Decimal('0.42')


def power_law(target_date: date, use_floor_model: bool = False) -> Decimal:
    """Calculate the Power Law projection for a given date."""
    days_since_genesis = (target_date - GENESIS).days
    power_law_value = Decimal(POWER_COEFFICIENT * Decimal(days_since_genesis)**POWER_FACTOR).quantize(Decimal('1.00'))
    if use_floor_model:
        return (power_law_value * FLOOR_MULTIPLIER).quantize(Decimal('1.00'))
    return power_law_value



def power_law_end_of_year_chart():
    title = "\nPower law & power law floor at end of year:"
    print(title)
    print("-" * len(title))
    print(f"Year | Power Law |     Floor")
    print("-" * len(title))
    for year in range(2009, 2041):
        target_date = date(year, 12, 31)
        power_law_value = power_law(target_date)
        power_law_floor = power_law(target_date, use_floor_model=True)
        print(f"{year} | {int(power_law_value):9,} | {int(power_law_floor):9,}")



if __name__ == "__main__":
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(
        description="Calculate Bitcoin Power Law projections"
    )
    parser.add_argument(
        'date',
        type=str,
        nargs='?',
        help='Calculate power law values for a specific date (format: YYYY-MM-DD, e.g., 2025-12-15)'
    )
    
    args = parser.parse_args()
    
    if args.date:
        try:
            target_date = date.fromisoformat(args.date)
            
            power_law_value = power_law(target_date)
            power_law_floor = power_law(target_date, use_floor_model=True)
            
            # Calculate width needed for right justification
            power_law_str = f"${int(power_law_value):,}"
            power_law_floor_str = f"${int(power_law_floor):,}"
            width = max(len(power_law_str), len(power_law_floor_str))
            
            print(f"Power Law calculations for {args.date}:")
            print(f"  Power Law Value: {power_law_str:>{width}}")
            print(f"  Power Law Floor: {power_law_floor_str:>{width}}")
        except ValueError as e:
            print(f"Error: Invalid date format. Please use YYYY-MM-DD format (e.g., 2025-12-15)")
            raise
    else:
        power_law_end_of_year_chart()


"""
Power law & power law floor at end of year:
--------------------------------------------
Year | Power Law |     Floor
--------------------------------------------
2009 |         0 |         0
2010 |         0 |         0
2011 |         4 |         2
2012 |        26 |        11
2013 |        96 |        40
2014 |       278 |       116
2015 |       682 |       286
2016 |     1,488 |       625
2017 |     2,954 |     1,240
2018 |     5,456 |     2,291
2019 |     9,503 |     3,991
2020 |    15,791 |     6,632
2021 |    25,162 |    10,568
2022 |    38,731 |    16,267
2023 |    57,869 |    24,305
2024 |    84,334 |    35,420
2025 |   120,009 |    50,404
2026 |   167,365 |    70,293
2027 |   229,248 |    96,284
2028 |   309,231 |   129,877
2029 |   410,744 |   172,512
2030 |   538,425 |   226,138
2031 |   697,355 |   292,889
2032 |   893,904 |   375,439
2033 | 1,133,542 |   476,087
2034 | 1,424,098 |   598,121
2035 | 1,773,791 |   744,992
2036 | 2,193,032 |   921,073
2037 | 2,689,722 | 1,129,683
2038 | 3,276,159 | 1,375,987
2039 | 3,964,739 | 1,665,190
2040 | 4,771,455 | 2,004,011
"""