SGR net present value. Presentation by IEA Kenya.

sgr_train.txt

- https://x.com/IEAKenya/status/1942493018717614531 
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZLN1Tbgyec

phase 1 2017, npv 3.8b usd.
phase 2 2019, npv 1.24b usd (in 2017 dollars)

npv phaswe 1 & 2. 5.1b usd(in 2017 dollars)
15years

future value investment.
10% is the opportunity cost(ie, t-bills) - base year is 2017.
if 5.1b had been invested in t-bills ; is the opportunity cost.
5.1b at 10% would have future value of 21.3b usd in 15yrs.
        5%  would have fv of 10.6b usd in 15yrs.

at 5% annual payment would need to be 486m usd (total 7.3b usd).
at 10% annula payment 671m usd (total 10.1b usd).

revenues:
2021:                                      total(133m usd)
2022: passenger(25m usd), cargo(148m usd), total(173m usd)
2023:                                      total(187m usd)

but at 10% loan rate, we need 671m usd, but revenue is only 187m usd.

revenue per tonne:
2021: 26.05usd/ton
2022: 26.43usd/ton
2023: 26.23usd/ton

SGR does KES 4.62 per tonne-km: https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-Economic-Survey.pdf

soda-ash: 30% of tonnage.

What do we need to do to catch-up.
to meet 671m usd, tonnage required is;
(a) at 30usd/ton, (you need 10m tonnage to fund only the mombasa-nai phase) (u need you need 22.37m  tonnage to cover whole mombasa-naivasha phase)
(b) at 50usd/ton, (u need 6m tonnage for phase 1) (u need 13.42m tonnage for both phases)
     This means raising cost by 96%(26->50) and also raising tonnage by 96%(->13.42m tonnage).

saudi-arabia: is 70usd/tonnage. 50usd/tonnage is unexpected for a country at KE's scale.

SGR does KES 4.62 per tonne-km: https://www.knbs.or.ke/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-Economic-Survey.pdf