kenya electricity power back of envelope stats

kenya_electricity_power.py

# These statistics, figures and projections are back of the envelope
# see; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Back-of-the-envelope_calculation.
# Do not rely on them for serious matters.
# But they should mostly be relatively accurate.

import math

# According to EPRA(Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority)
# See: https://www.epra.go.ke/sites/default/files/2024-10/EPRA%20Energy%20and%20Petroleum%20Statistics%20Report%20FY%202023-2024_2.pdf
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020 = 1880  # megawatt. This was in july 2020
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 = 2150  # megawatt. December 2022
# Thus
number_of_months_in_interval = 29
demand_growth_per_month = (
    peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2020
) / number_of_months_in_interval

demand_growth_per_month = math.ceil(demand_growth_per_month)
# growth in megawatt. Here we have made assumption that growth is linear and not compound, etc.
assert demand_growth_per_month == 10  # MW

# According to Kenya power
# See; https://twitter.com/sammyjamar/status/1734137763937620149
available_capacity_in_year_2022 = 2235  # megawatt. December 2022
reserve_margin_in_2022 = (
    (available_capacity_in_year_2022 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022)
    / available_capacity_in_year_2022
) * 100
reserve_margin_in_2022 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2022)
assert reserve_margin_in_2022 == 4  # percent.


# Nuclear plant is expected to be commisioned in year 2035(the first phase).
# See: https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/business/kenya-to-build-nuclear-power-plant-from-2027-4380566
# Let's make the assumption that all the 1000MW will be available in year 2035.
nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035 = 1000  # MW
available_capacity_in_year_2035 = available_capacity_in_year_2022 + nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
assert available_capacity_in_year_2035 == 3235  # MW

months_between_2022_to_2035 = (2035 - 2022) * 12
assert months_between_2022_to_2035 == 156  # months
peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 = peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2022 + (
    months_between_2022_to_2035 * demand_growth_per_month
)
assert peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035 == 3710  # MW


reserve_margin_in_2035 = (
    (available_capacity_in_year_2035 - peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)
    / available_capacity_in_year_2035
) * 100
reserve_margin_in_2035 = math.ceil(reserve_margin_in_2035)
assert reserve_margin_in_2035 == -14  # NEGATIVE. percent


# The acceptable reserve margin is at least 15%
# See; https://energyknowledgebase.com/topics/reserve-margin.asp
# South Africa for instance had a negative(percent) reserve margin in march 2023
# https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/486595-economists-warn-risk-of-total-grid-collapse-is-higher-eskom-denies-it.html

# So how much more megawatts do we need to bring on to the grid by 2035 to be within acceptable reserve margins?
# ie, How big or How many new power plants do we need to bring up.
# The equation is;
# 15 = ((x- peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035)/x) * 100  # Find x?
target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035 = 15  # percent
needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = (100 * peak_demand_for_electricity_in_year_2035) / (
    100 - target_reserve_margin_in_year_2035
)
needed_capacity_in_year_2035 = math.ceil(needed_capacity_in_year_2035)
assert needed_capacity_in_year_2035 == 4365  # megawatt

# Thus besides the nuclear plant's 1000MW, we will need an extra;
extra_power_needed = (
    needed_capacity_in_year_2035 - available_capacity_in_year_2022 - nuclear_capacity_in_year_2035
)
assert extra_power_needed == 1130  # MW

also see; https://gist.github.com/komuw/78f3934cae93552190ba90015d42d027 (price of solar)