xCup 2026 World Cup pre-registration — committed 2026-06-06, six days before kickoff

2026-06-06_world-cup-2026-elo.json

{
  "meta": {
    "tournament": "FIFA World Cup 2026",
    "model": "xCup L2 = L1 Dixon-Coles + Elo correction (w=0.5)",
    "data_since": "2018-01-01",
    "n_sims": 100000,
    "seed": 0,
    "preregistered_date": "2026-06-06",
    "validation": "Elo correction is a significant out-of-sample improvement: pooled RPS skill +10.0%->+13.6% over 2010-2022, Diebold-Mariano p=0.002 (see scripts/backtest_elo_compare.py, docs/RESEARCH_LOG.md).",
    "market_gap_abs": {
      "L1_raw": 1.105,
      "L1_plus_elo": 0.685
    }
  },
  "champion_probabilities": {
    "Argentina": 0.20276,
    "Spain": 0.12986,
    "Brazil": 0.11522,
    "Colombia": 0.08309,
    "France": 0.06236,
    "England": 0.05528,
    "Ecuador": 0.04539,
    "Uruguay": 0.03956,
    "Portugal": 0.03847,
    "Japan": 0.02574,
    "Netherlands": 0.02082,
    "Germany": 0.02063,
    "Morocco": 0.01766,
    "Mexico": 0.01646,
    "Belgium": 0.0152,
    "Paraguay": 0.01414,
    "Switzerland": 0.01197,
    "Norway": 0.01144,
    "Croatia": 0.01123,
    "Australia": 0.00974,
    "Canada": 0.00882,
    "Senegal": 0.00765,
    "Iran": 0.00728,
    "South Korea": 0.00548,
    "Turkey": 0.00493,
    "Austria": 0.00331,
    "United States": 0.003,
    "Algeria": 0.0022,
    "Uzbekistan": 0.00178,
    "Ivory Coast": 0.00153,
    "Egypt": 0.0014,
    "Scotland": 0.00117,
    "Czech Republic": 0.00104,
    "Tunisia": 0.00066,
    "Panama": 0.00065,
    "Sweden": 0.00062,
    "New Zealand": 0.0004,
    "DR Congo": 0.0003,
    "Jordan": 0.00025,
    "Iraq": 0.00022,
    "Saudi Arabia": 0.00012,
    "South Africa": 6e-05,
    "Bosnia and Herzegovina": 5e-05,
    "Cape Verde": 3e-05,
    "Haiti": 3e-05,
    "Ghana": 0.0,
    "Qatar": 0.0,
    "Curaçao": 0.0
  },
  "round_probabilities": {
    "Argentina": {
      "R32": 0.98393,
      "R16": 0.68777,
      "QF": 0.55224,
      "SF": 0.41296,
      "Final": 0.29169,
      "Champion": 0.20276
    },
    "Spain": {
      "R32": 0.98126,
      "R16": 0.6678,
      "QF": 0.4644,
      "SF": 0.34104,
      "Final": 0.2271,
      "Champion": 0.12986
    },
    "Brazil": {
      "R32": 0.97794,
      "R16": 0.70563,
      "QF": 0.49622,
      "SF": 0.33568,
      "Final": 0.19251,
      "Champion": 0.11522
    },
    "Colombia": {
      "R32": 0.92679,
      "R16": 0.67335,
      "QF": 0.44776,
      "SF": 0.254,
      "Final": 0.14907,
      "Champion": 0.08309
    },
    "France": {
      "R32": 0.92008,
      "R16": 0.63765,
      "QF": 0.38391,
      "SF": 0.23363,
      "Final": 0.12441,
      "Champion": 0.06236
    },
    "England": {
      "R32": 0.95379,
      "R16": 0.60731,
      "QF": 0.37924,
      "SF": 0.2102,
      "Final": 0.10618,
      "Champion": 0.05528
    },
    "Ecuador": {
      "R32": 0.94149,
      "R16": 0.60614,
      "QF": 0.33153,
      "SF": 0.18906,
      "Final": 0.09444,
      "Champion": 0.04539
    },
    "Uruguay": {
      "R32": 0.91713,
      "R16": 0.46014,
      "QF": 0.27803,
      "SF": 0.15979,
      "Final": 0.08361,
      "Champion": 0.03956
    },
    "Portugal": {
      "R32": 0.86417,
      "R16": 0.55671,
      "QF": 0.31532,
      "SF": 0.16095,
      "Final": 0.0831,
      "Champion": 0.03847
    },
    "Japan": {
      "R32": 0.87878,
      "R16": 0.4527,
      "QF": 0.26718,
      "SF": 0.13641,
      "Final": 0.06065,
      "Champion": 0.02574
    },
    "Netherlands": {
      "R32": 0.87515,
      "R16": 0.43763,
      "QF": 0.25494,
      "SF": 0.12589,
      "Final": 0.05357,
      "Champion": 0.02082
    },
    "Germany": {
      "R32": 0.93,
      "R16": 0.55072,
      "QF": 0.26407,
      "SF": 0.13222,
      "Final": 0.05474,
      "Champion": 0.02063
    },
    "Morocco": {
      "R32": 0.84596,
      "R16": 0.43219,
      "QF": 0.23566,
      "SF": 0.11435,
      "Final": 0.04773,
      "Champion": 0.01766
    },
    "Mexico": {
      "R32": 0.89547,
      "R16": 0.52987,
      "QF": 0.2561,
      "SF": 0.10882,
      "Final": 0.04254,
      "Champion": 0.01646
    },
    "Belgium": {
      "R32": 0.86617,
      "R16": 0.51623,
      "QF": 0.24516,
      "SF": 0.09598,
      "Final": 0.04225,
      "Champion": 0.0152
    },
    "Paraguay": {
      "R32": 0.76458,
      "R16": 0.44805,
      "QF": 0.20944,
      "SF": 0.08704,
      "Final": 0.03788,
      "Champion": 0.01414
    },
    "Switzerland": {
      "R32": 0.94461,
      "R16": 0.55489,
      "QF": 0.2407,
      "SF": 0.08933,
      "Final": 0.03419,
      "Champion": 0.01197
    },
    "Norway": {
      "R32": 0.77362,
      "R16": 0.42083,
      "QF": 0.19027,
      "SF": 0.08586,
      "Final": 0.0329,
      "Champion": 0.01144
    },
    "Croatia": {
      "R32": 0.85823,
      "R16": 0.4053,
      "QF": 0.18559,
      "SF": 0.0805,
      "Final": 0.03145,
      "Champion": 0.01123
    },
    "Australia": {
      "R32": 0.72046,
      "R16": 0.3966,
      "QF": 0.17168,
      "SF": 0.06742,
      "Final": 0.02718,
      "Champion": 0.00974
    },
    "Canada": {
      "R32": 0.91472,
      "R16": 0.49978,
      "QF": 0.206,
      "SF": 0.07425,
      "Final": 0.02703,
      "Champion": 0.00882
    },
    "Senegal": {
      "R32": 0.7122,
      "R16": 0.35932,
      "QF": 0.15441,
      "SF": 0.06444,
      "Final": 0.02218,
      "Champion": 0.00765
    },
    "Iran": {
      "R32": 0.79397,
      "R16": 0.41618,
      "QF": 0.16496,
      "SF": 0.05654,
      "Final": 0.02153,
      "Champion": 0.00728
    },
    "South Korea": {
      "R32": 0.81805,
      "R16": 0.41926,
      "QF": 0.16934,
      "SF": 0.05831,
      "Final": 0.01892,
      "Champion": 0.00548
    },
    "Turkey": {
      "R32": 0.66082,
      "R16": 0.34021,
      "QF": 0.13211,
      "SF": 0.04463,
      "Final": 0.01637,
      "Champion": 0.00493
    },
    "Austria": {
      "R32": 0.64172,
      "R16": 0.21157,
      "QF": 0.0879,
      "SF": 0.0325,
      "Final": 0.0115,
      "Champion": 0.00331
    },
    "United States": {
      "R32": 0.60389,
      "R16": 0.2867,
      "QF": 0.10336,
      "SF": 0.03431,
      "Final": 0.01088,
      "Champion": 0.003
    },
    "Algeria": {
      "R32": 0.60216,
      "R16": 0.18556,
      "QF": 0.07501,
      "SF": 0.02581,
      "Final": 0.00813,
      "Champion": 0.0022
    },
    "Uzbekistan": {
      "R32": 0.50344,
      "R16": 0.19763,
      "QF": 0.07077,
      "SF": 0.02328,
      "Final": 0.0069,
      "Champion": 0.00178
    },
    "Ivory Coast": {
      "R32": 0.66617,
      "R16": 0.25473,
      "QF": 0.08019,
      "SF": 0.0232,
      "Final": 0.00601,
      "Champion": 0.00153
    },
    "Egypt": {
      "R32": 0.59173,
      "R16": 0.2327,
      "QF": 0.06882,
      "SF": 0.01866,
      "Final": 0.00511,
      "Champion": 0.0014
    },
    "Scotland": {
      "R32": 0.57663,
      "R16": 0.19122,
      "QF": 0.06759,
      "SF": 0.02023,
      "Final": 0.00489,
      "Champion": 0.00117
    },
    "Czech Republic": {
      "R32": 0.65683,
      "R16": 0.26243,
      "QF": 0.08373,
      "SF": 0.02061,
      "Final": 0.00534,
      "Champion": 0.00104
    },
    "Tunisia": {
      "R32": 0.46657,
      "R16": 0.1382,
      "QF": 0.04489,
      "SF": 0.01182,
      "Final": 0.00278,
      "Champion": 0.00066
    },
    "Panama": {
      "R32": 0.58905,
      "R16": 0.16737,
      "QF": 0.05261,
      "SF": 0.01386,
      "Final": 0.00337,
      "Champion": 0.00065
    },
    "Sweden": {
      "R32": 0.4732,
      "R16": 0.13625,
      "QF": 0.04398,
      "SF": 0.01134,
      "Final": 0.00262,
      "Champion": 0.00062
    },
    "New Zealand": {
      "R32": 0.461,
      "R16": 0.15183,
      "QF": 0.03529,
      "SF": 0.00748,
      "Final": 0.0017,
      "Champion": 0.0004
    },
    "DR Congo": {
      "R32": 0.33724,
      "R16": 0.10535,
      "QF": 0.03034,
      "SF": 0.00741,
      "Final": 0.00184,
      "Champion": 0.0003
    },
    "Jordan": {
      "R32": 0.39241,
      "R16": 0.09224,
      "QF": 0.02906,
      "SF": 0.00718,
      "Final": 0.00159,
      "Champion": 0.00025
    },
    "Iraq": {
      "R32": 0.29765,
      "R16": 0.09192,
      "QF": 0.02377,
      "SF": 0.00553,
      "Final": 0.00109,
      "Champion": 0.00022
    },
    "Saudi Arabia": {
      "R32": 0.35957,
      "R16": 0.07984,
      "QF": 0.02157,
      "SF": 0.00469,
      "Final": 0.00086,
      "Champion": 0.00012
    },
    "South Africa": {
      "R32": 0.33594,
      "R16": 0.08851,
      "QF": 0.01803,
      "SF": 0.00309,
      "Final": 0.00057,
      "Champion": 6e-05
    },
    "Bosnia and Herzegovina": {
      "R32": 0.42978,
      "R16": 0.10148,
      "QF": 0.01978,
      "SF": 0.00282,
      "Final": 0.00056,
      "Champion": 5e-05
    },
    "Cape Verde": {
      "R32": 0.27589,
      "R16": 0.05228,
      "QF": 0.01251,
      "SF": 0.00213,
      "Final": 0.00041,
      "Champion": 3e-05
    },
    "Haiti": {
      "R32": 0.24636,
      "R16": 0.04889,
      "QF": 0.0106,
      "SF": 0.00173,
      "Final": 0.00019,
      "Champion": 3e-05
    },
    "Ghana": {
      "R32": 0.26965,
      "R16": 0.04583,
      "QF": 0.0096,
      "SF": 0.00147,
      "Final": 0.00023,
      "Champion": 0.0
    },
    "Qatar": {
      "R32": 0.34517,
      "R16": 0.06925,
      "QF": 0.01089,
      "SF": 0.00129,
      "Final": 0.0002,
      "Champion": 0.0
    },
    "Curaçao": {
      "R32": 0.15858,
      "R16": 0.02596,
      "QF": 0.00345,
      "SF": 0.00026,
      "Final": 1e-05,
      "Champion": 0.0
    }
  }
}

2026-06-06_world-cup-2026-elo.md

xCup L2 pre-registered forecast — FIFA World Cup 2026 (Elo-corrected)

• Model: xCup L2 = L1 Dixon-Coles + Elo correction (w=0.5)
• 100,000 sims, seed 0, pre-registered 2026-06-06 (git commit = timestamp)
• Validation: Elo correction is a significant out-of-sample improvement: pooled RPS skill +10.0%->+13.6% over 2010-2022, Diebold-Mariano p=0.002 (see scripts/backtest_elo_compare.py, docs/RESEARCH_LOG.md).
• Market gap Σ|model−market|: L1 raw 1.105 → L1+Elo 0.685

#	Team	L1+Elo champ	L1 raw	Polymarket
1	Argentina	20.3%	24.0%	8.8%
2	Spain	13.0%	4.7%	16.0%
3	Brazil	11.5%	19.0%	8.2%
4	Colombia	8.3%	11.6%	1.8%
5	France	6.2%	2.4%	16.1%
6	England	5.5%	3.4%	11.2%
7	Ecuador	4.5%	5.4%	0.9%
8	Uruguay	4.0%	6.9%	1.1%
9	Portugal	3.8%	2.3%	10.0%
10	Japan	2.6%	2.6%	2.1%
11	Netherlands	2.1%	1.0%	4.0%
12	Germany	2.1%	1.1%	5.3%
13	Morocco	1.8%	3.1%	1.6%
14	Mexico	1.6%	1.4%	1.2%
15	Belgium	1.5%	0.8%	1.9%
16	Paraguay	1.4%	2.0%	0.2%

2026-06-06_world-cup-2026.json

{
  "meta": {
    "tournament": "FIFA World Cup 2026",
    "model": "xCup L1 Dixon-Coles double-Poisson + Monte Carlo",
    "model_hash": "a484fcf352ed",
    "data_since": "2018-01-01",
    "n_sims": 100000,
    "seed": 0,
    "preregistered_date": "2026-06-06",
    "data_source": "martj42/international_results (CC0)",
    "known_limitation": "CONMEBOL confederation-isolation bias inflates South American teams; L2 will add Elo to correct. Raw L1 baseline."
  },
  "champion_probabilities": {
    "Argentina": 0.24042,
    "Brazil": 0.19025,
    "Colombia": 0.11608,
    "Uruguay": 0.06906,
    "Ecuador": 0.05414,
    "Spain": 0.04707,
    "England": 0.03448,
    "Morocco": 0.03098,
    "Japan": 0.02559,
    "France": 0.0242,
    "Portugal": 0.0226,
    "Paraguay": 0.01972,
    "Australia": 0.01823,
    "Mexico": 0.01356,
    "Germany": 0.01108,
    "Iran": 0.01005,
    "Netherlands": 0.00986,
    "Canada": 0.00897,
    "Belgium": 0.00836,
    "South Korea": 0.00732,
    "Switzerland": 0.00543,
    "United States": 0.00538,
    "Croatia": 0.005,
    "Senegal": 0.00429,
    "Norway": 0.00401,
    "Uzbekistan": 0.00248,
    "Algeria": 0.00204,
    "Ivory Coast": 0.00184,
    "Austria": 0.00127,
    "New Zealand": 0.00126,
    "Tunisia": 0.00111,
    "Egypt": 0.00099,
    "Turkey": 0.00051,
    "Czech Republic": 0.00036,
    "Sweden": 0.00036,
    "Panama": 0.00031,
    "Scotland": 0.00026,
    "DR Congo": 0.00024,
    "Saudi Arabia": 0.00022,
    "Jordan": 0.00022,
    "Iraq": 0.00015,
    "South Africa": 7e-05,
    "Qatar": 7e-05,
    "Ghana": 4e-05,
    "Cape Verde": 3e-05,
    "Haiti": 2e-05,
    "Bosnia and Herzegovina": 2e-05,
    "Curaçao": 0.0
  },
  "round_probabilities": {
    "Argentina": {
      "R32": 0.99202,
      "R16": 0.73673,
      "QF": 0.60625,
      "SF": 0.46033,
      "Final": 0.32829,
      "Champion": 0.24042
    },
    "Brazil": {
      "R32": 0.99093,
      "R16": 0.78658,
      "QF": 0.61964,
      "SF": 0.46972,
      "Final": 0.28389,
      "Champion": 0.19025
    },
    "Colombia": {
      "R32": 0.95591,
      "R16": 0.76633,
      "QF": 0.56566,
      "SF": 0.32056,
      "Final": 0.19591,
      "Champion": 0.11608
    },
    "Uruguay": {
      "R32": 0.95601,
      "R16": 0.56685,
      "QF": 0.37056,
      "SF": 0.24113,
      "Final": 0.14049,
      "Champion": 0.06906
    },
    "Ecuador": {
      "R32": 0.94975,
      "R16": 0.65723,
      "QF": 0.38096,
      "SF": 0.22319,
      "Final": 0.11596,
      "Champion": 0.05414
    },
    "Spain": {
      "R32": 0.95355,
      "R16": 0.52657,
      "QF": 0.32861,
      "SF": 0.20162,
      "Final": 0.11149,
      "Champion": 0.04707
    },
    "England": {
      "R32": 0.94397,
      "R16": 0.57763,
      "QF": 0.3541,
      "SF": 0.17013,
      "Final": 0.07449,
      "Champion": 0.03448
    },
    "Morocco": {
      "R32": 0.88937,
      "R16": 0.51148,
      "QF": 0.31133,
      "SF": 0.16987,
      "Final": 0.07987,
      "Champion": 0.03098
    },
    "Japan": {
      "R32": 0.8933,
      "R16": 0.42957,
      "QF": 0.26569,
      "SF": 0.14165,
      "Final": 0.06645,
      "Champion": 0.02559
    },
    "France": {
      "R32": 0.88918,
      "R16": 0.55242,
      "QF": 0.27694,
      "SF": 0.14275,
      "Final": 0.06352,
      "Champion": 0.0242
    },
    "Portugal": {
      "R32": 0.82375,
      "R16": 0.52453,
      "QF": 0.28429,
      "SF": 0.13152,
      "Final": 0.05991,
      "Champion": 0.0226
    },
    "Paraguay": {
      "R32": 0.81576,
      "R16": 0.50676,
      "QF": 0.25067,
      "SF": 0.11427,
      "Final": 0.05306,
      "Champion": 0.01972
    },
    "Australia": {
      "R32": 0.81604,
      "R16": 0.50756,
      "QF": 0.24932,
      "SF": 0.11253,
      "Final": 0.05271,
      "Champion": 0.01823
    },
    "Mexico": {
      "R32": 0.89338,
      "R16": 0.53298,
      "QF": 0.25508,
      "SF": 0.10353,
      "Final": 0.03923,
      "Champion": 0.01356
    },
    "Germany": {
      "R32": 0.89122,
      "R16": 0.51113,
      "QF": 0.22134,
      "SF": 0.09849,
      "Final": 0.03579,
      "Champion": 0.01108
    },
    "Iran": {
      "R32": 0.81118,
      "R16": 0.46698,
      "QF": 0.19657,
      "SF": 0.0759,
      "Final": 0.0319,
      "Champion": 0.01005
    },
    "Netherlands": {
      "R32": 0.82617,
      "R16": 0.33133,
      "QF": 0.18012,
      "SF": 0.08276,
      "Final": 0.03082,
      "Champion": 0.00986
    },
    "Canada": {
      "R32": 0.93639,
      "R16": 0.52906,
      "QF": 0.21478,
      "SF": 0.07974,
      "Final": 0.03001,
      "Champion": 0.00897
    },
    "Belgium": {
      "R32": 0.79855,
      "R16": 0.45397,
      "QF": 0.18712,
      "SF": 0.07057,
      "Final": 0.02863,
      "Champion": 0.00836
    },
    "South Korea": {
      "R32": 0.86052,
      "R16": 0.47715,
      "QF": 0.20721,
      "SF": 0.07641,
      "Final": 0.0259,
      "Champion": 0.00732
    },
    "Switzerland": {
      "R32": 0.91575,
      "R16": 0.48494,
      "QF": 0.1802,
      "SF": 0.05995,
      "Final": 0.02069,
      "Champion": 0.00543
    },
    "United States": {
      "R32": 0.69479,
      "R16": 0.36303,
      "QF": 0.14455,
      "SF": 0.05372,
      "Final": 0.01944,
      "Champion": 0.00538
    },
    "Croatia": {
      "R32": 0.80705,
      "R16": 0.33549,
      "QF": 0.14256,
      "SF": 0.05049,
      "Final": 0.01641,
      "Champion": 0.005
    },
    "Senegal": {
      "R32": 0.7078,
      "R16": 0.33338,
      "QF": 0.12312,
      "SF": 0.04616,
      "Final": 0.01437,
      "Champion": 0.00429
    },
    "Norway": {
      "R32": 0.73704,
      "R16": 0.3564,
      "QF": 0.1318,
      "SF": 0.05038,
      "Final": 0.01589,
      "Champion": 0.00401
    },
    "Uzbekistan": {
      "R32": 0.54408,
      "R16": 0.24581,
      "QF": 0.09669,
      "SF": 0.03134,
      "Final": 0.00901,
      "Champion": 0.00248
    },
    "Algeria": {
      "R32": 0.62555,
      "R16": 0.20018,
      "QF": 0.07924,
      "SF": 0.0278,
      "Final": 0.00883,
      "Champion": 0.00204
    },
    "Ivory Coast": {
      "R32": 0.67607,
      "R16": 0.28162,
      "QF": 0.09071,
      "SF": 0.0269,
      "Final": 0.00725,
      "Champion": 0.00184
    },
    "Austria": {
      "R32": 0.56532,
      "R16": 0.17124,
      "QF": 0.0635,
      "SF": 0.02009,
      "Final": 0.00606,
      "Champion": 0.00127
    },
    "New Zealand": {
      "R32": 0.58631,
      "R16": 0.2526,
      "QF": 0.07184,
      "SF": 0.01948,
      "Final": 0.00531,
      "Champion": 0.00126
    },
    "Tunisia": {
      "R32": 0.55626,
      "R16": 0.16742,
      "QF": 0.06332,
      "SF": 0.01979,
      "Final": 0.00507,
      "Champion": 0.00111
    },
    "Egypt": {
      "R32": 0.53544,
      "R16": 0.21559,
      "QF": 0.05906,
      "SF": 0.01571,
      "Final": 0.00443,
      "Champion": 0.00099
    },
    "Turkey": {
      "R32": 0.41828,
      "R16": 0.1553,
      "QF": 0.04254,
      "SF": 0.0105,
      "Final": 0.00275,
      "Champion": 0.00051
    },
    "Czech Republic": {
      "R32": 0.55684,
      "R16": 0.19763,
      "QF": 0.05365,
      "SF": 0.01172,
      "Final": 0.00266,
      "Champion": 0.00036
    },
    "Sweden": {
      "R32": 0.43483,
      "R16": 0.10616,
      "QF": 0.03398,
      "SF": 0.00842,
      "Final": 0.00181,
      "Champion": 0.00036
    },
    "Panama": {
      "R32": 0.54614,
      "R16": 0.13776,
      "QF": 0.04043,
      "SF": 0.00904,
      "Final": 0.00186,
      "Champion": 0.00031
    },
    "Scotland": {
      "R32": 0.41477,
      "R16": 0.11703,
      "QF": 0.03541,
      "SF": 0.00811,
      "Final": 0.00163,
      "Champion": 0.00026
    },
    "DR Congo": {
      "R32": 0.30074,
      "R16": 0.0994,
      "QF": 0.02795,
      "SF": 0.00588,
      "Final": 0.00135,
      "Champion": 0.00024
    },
    "Saudi Arabia": {
      "R32": 0.42762,
      "R16": 0.10687,
      "QF": 0.03054,
      "SF": 0.00679,
      "Final": 0.00141,
      "Champion": 0.00022
    },
    "Jordan": {
      "R32": 0.39902,
      "R16": 0.09518,
      "QF": 0.02795,
      "SF": 0.00651,
      "Final": 0.00147,
      "Champion": 0.00022
    },
    "Iraq": {
      "R32": 0.3832,
      "R16": 0.12166,
      "QF": 0.02972,
      "SF": 0.0069,
      "Final": 0.00118,
      "Champion": 0.00015
    },
    "South Africa": {
      "R32": 0.38601,
      "R16": 0.10844,
      "QF": 0.02371,
      "SF": 0.00445,
      "Final": 0.00084,
      "Champion": 7e-05
    },
    "Qatar": {
      "R32": 0.5285,
      "R16": 0.13043,
      "QF": 0.02674,
      "SF": 0.0042,
      "Final": 0.00067,
      "Champion": 7e-05
    },
    "Ghana": {
      "R32": 0.38141,
      "R16": 0.07458,
      "QF": 0.01773,
      "SF": 0.0033,
      "Final": 0.00052,
      "Champion": 4e-05
    },
    "Cape Verde": {
      "R32": 0.24171,
      "R16": 0.04358,
      "QF": 0.00922,
      "SF": 0.00131,
      "Final": 0.00015,
      "Champion": 3e-05
    },
    "Haiti": {
      "R32": 0.27118,
      "R16": 0.061,
      "QF": 0.0152,
      "SF": 0.00281,
      "Final": 0.00041,
      "Champion": 2e-05
    },
    "Bosnia and Herzegovina": {
      "R32": 0.28607,
      "R16": 0.04851,
      "QF": 0.00748,
      "SF": 0.00102,
      "Final": 0.00013,
      "Champion": 2e-05
    },
    "Curaçao": {
      "R32": 0.18527,
      "R16": 0.03593,
      "QF": 0.00492,
      "SF": 0.00056,
      "Final": 8e-05,
      "Champion": 0.0
    }
  }
}

2026-06-06_world-cup-2026.md

xCup pre-registered forecast — FIFA World Cup 2026

• Model: xCup L1 Dixon-Coles double-Poisson + Monte Carlo (a484fcf352ed)
• Fitted on 8,042 matches since 2018-01-01; 100,000 simulations; seed 0
• Pre-registered: 2026-06-06 (git commit = timestamp)
• Data: martj42/international_results (CC0)
• ⚠️ Known limitation: CONMEBOL confederation-isolation bias inflates South American teams; L2 will add Elo to correct. Raw L1 baseline.

Champion probability — top 16 (xCup vs Polymarket market)

#	Team	xCup champ	Final	SF	R16	Polymarket
1	Argentina	24.0%	32.8%	46.0%	73.7%	8.8%
2	Brazil	19.0%	28.4%	47.0%	78.7%	8.2%
3	Colombia	11.6%	19.6%	32.1%	76.6%	1.8%
4	Uruguay	6.9%	14.0%	24.1%	56.7%	1.1%
5	Ecuador	5.4%	11.6%	22.3%	65.7%	0.9%
6	Spain	4.7%	11.1%	20.2%	52.7%	16.0%
7	England	3.4%	7.4%	17.0%	57.8%	11.2%
8	Morocco	3.1%	8.0%	17.0%	51.1%	1.6%
9	Japan	2.6%	6.6%	14.2%	43.0%	2.1%
10	France	2.4%	6.4%	14.3%	55.2%	16.1%
11	Portugal	2.3%	6.0%	13.2%	52.5%	10.0%
12	Paraguay	2.0%	5.3%	11.4%	50.7%	0.2%
13	Australia	1.8%	5.3%	11.3%	50.8%	0.1%
14	Mexico	1.4%	3.9%	10.4%	53.3%	1.2%
15	Germany	1.1%	3.6%	9.8%	51.1%	5.3%
16	Iran	1.0%	3.2%	7.6%	46.7%	0.1%