gistfile1.txt

A hypothetical model:

1. In 88% of all national general elections, the outcome is known before the 
election to a high degree of certainty. In all these cases, the leading candidate 
gets more donations than his opponent.

2. In 12% of all national general elections, the outcome is not well known before 
the election. In 50% of these cases, the candidate who eventually wins will have 
raised more money than his opponent. (i.e.: there is no correlation between money 
raised and victory)

Result: in 94% of all national general elections, the candidate who raised more
money won, yet money raised is not a cause of victory in an election.