I'm gonna go out on a limb here and claim that the general interest in
cryptocurrencies is directly proportional to the BTC/USD
rate.
Remember the 2018 bubble, when everyone made delusional claims along the lines of the blockchain will replace the internet? It got so big that even a bunch of companies bought the hype. Cash was thrown at business projects that made no goddamn sense: I distinctly remember asking the Finnish MD of a major financial organization how their blockchain proof-of-concept was supposed to work. They managed to convince me they didn't have a clue.
At 2021, we're witnessing another crazy bull run. This time around your local
NFT snake oil salesman is namedropping web3 and digital scarcity, but it's
really the same old stuff. Let 1BTC = 1ETH = 0USD
and, I assure you that DeFi,
DAOs and meme tokens disappear from the Forbes back to the fringes.
The obsession with the BTC/USD
rate reveals how empty the hype is: There
simply is nothing else to be interested in. Nobody cared about the tech
then, nobody really cares about
the tech now.
Yeah, Bitcoin achieves a distributed consensus between unreliable actors. That's a tricky problem and the solution is pretty genius. For a lot of people, it's just not that relevant: If you can trust your government and your banks to a reasonable degree, it's much simpler to run things the centralized way.
Yeah you can run distributed apps on Ethereum. Why do that though?
There is an enormous influx of technologically illiterate people who aren't even
pretending they are after anything other than a quick buck. I try to watch TV
and I see Matt Damon on a crypto ad suggesting that trading dogecoin is about as
groundbreaking as being the first person on Mars. Oh, by the way, even though
climate change is a very real existential threat for our species, we are spending
a country's worth of electricity on meaningless SHA-256
s, because we're too
greedy to quit.
It's all so messed up and I just miss simpler times.
Couldn't agree more. I've tried to make sense of it myself and this is the best I've come up with:
When the human species senses a momentous shift on the horizon, human capital and energy is spent to "partition" the space in people's minds ahead of time. This looks from the outside like a speculative bubble, but helps prepare us for a generational shift.
After the "bubble" pops, the true adherents who have gone so deep into the new wave they can't get out, lead the charge into the future, with some of them eventually coming out the other side intact — the explorers who risk everything to bring back value to the tribe.
We see this over and over again as the world adapts to one major shift after another. And we'll see it again. I agree crypto isn't inherently valuable now, but I wouldn't be surprised if (like the internet before it) it became the default 20-50 years from now.