Created
January 14, 2022 17:23
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def backtestPerformanceVis(ticker, n_hours, training_hours, mov_avg, forecast_hours): | |
""" | |
Consolidates the previous functions that support the backtesting process. | |
""" | |
# Getting Price data | |
print("Getting price data...") | |
prices = getIntradayPrices( | |
crypto=ticker, | |
n_hours=n_hours, | |
training_hours=training_hours, | |
mov_avg=mov_avg | |
) | |
# Predicting over time | |
print("Running predictions...") | |
pred_df = runningFBP( | |
prices, | |
forecast_hours=forecast_hours, | |
training_hours=training_hours | |
) | |
# Adding sentiment positions to the prediction DF | |
print("Getting positions...") | |
positions = pred_df | |
# Getting forecast prophet positions | |
positions['fbp_positions'] = positions.apply( | |
lambda x: fbpPositions(x, short=True), | |
axis=1 | |
) | |
# Buy and hold position | |
positions['buy_hold'] = 1 | |
# Random positions | |
positions['random_positions'] = random.choices( | |
[1,0,-1], k=len(positions) | |
) | |
# Getting returns each hour | |
print("Performing the backtest...") | |
log_returns = prices[['ds', 'open']].set_index( | |
'ds' | |
).loc[positions.index].apply(np.log).diff() | |
# The positions to backtest (shifted ahead by 1 to prevent lookahead bias) | |
bt_positions = positions[[ | |
'buy_hold', | |
'random_positions', | |
'fbp_positions' | |
]].shift(1) | |
# The returns during the backtest | |
returns = bt_positions.multiply( | |
log_returns['open'], | |
axis=0 | |
) | |
# Inversing the log returns to get daily portfolio balance | |
performance = returns.cumsum().apply( | |
np.exp | |
).dropna().fillna( | |
method='ffill' | |
) | |
# Displaying the final balance of the portfolio | |
print("Final Performance:") | |
display(performance.tail(1)) | |
# Visualizing results | |
fig = px.line( | |
performance, | |
x=performance.index, | |
y=performance.columns, | |
title='FBProphet, Buy&Hold, Random Positions', | |
labels={"value": "Portfolio Balance", | |
"index": "Date"} | |
) | |
return fig.show() |
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