Here's the result when Family First ARE included in the count:
- Simon BIRMINGHAM (Liberal)
- Penny WONG (Australian Labor Party)
- Cory BERNARDI (Liberal)
- Nick XENOPHON (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Don FARRELL (Australian Labor Party)
- Anne RUSTON (Liberal)
- Stirling GRIFF (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Alex GALLACHER (Australian Labor Party)
- David FAWCETT (Liberal)
- Sarah HANSON-YOUNG (The Greens)
- Skye KAKOSCHKE-MOORE (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Bob DAY (Family First)
And here's the result where Family First are removed from all ballots, and their preferences are redistributed before counting begins properly:
- Simon BIRMINGHAM (Liberal)
- Penny WONG (Australian Labor Party)
- Cory BERNARDI (Liberal)
- Nick XENOPHON (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Don FARRELL (Australian Labor Party)
- Anne RUSTON (Liberal)
- Stirling GRIFF (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Alex GALLACHER (Australian Labor Party)
- David FAWCETT (Liberal)
- Sarah HANSON-YOUNG (The Greens)
- Skye KAKOSCHKE-MOORE (Nick Xenophon Team)
- Anne McEWEN (Australian Labor Party)
The only difference is the election of a Labor senator, Anne McEwan, to the last spot!
Running the algorithm with RUST_LOG=trace
indicates that Anne would beat One Nation's Steven Burgess to that last spot.
Credit for this idea goes to Redditor tl8roy: https://www.reddit.com/user/tl8roy
Code for this simulation is here: https://github.com/michaelsproul/aus_senate/tree/exclude-family-first