March 4, 2020
This document is an appeal for friends and family in NYC to begin behaving as if 'Community Spread' of the corona virus is currently happening. We now have many examples throughout the world which show that early dramatic action is most effective in curtailing the spread of virus. Simple prudent actions now, can have big impacts.
Please continue to follow all of the standard advice you have heard regarding thoroughly washing hands, not touching your face, and avoiding body contact with others. In addition to this, please begin voluntarily practicing 'Social Distancing' techniques. These include:
- Avoid physical contact with others. (handshaking, high-fives, etc.)
- If you can work from home, begin now.
- Avoid large groups of people (events, transport hubs)
- Minimize use of public transport.
- Prefer credit cards rather then cash (only you, not the cashier touch cards usually)
- If you have kids, make plans for how to care for them with schools closed.
Doing these actions now, as a voluntary kindness to the community will feel a lot better than being asked to later and goes a long way towards mitigating the spread.
Also, prepare now rather than later. There may be a dramatic difference in your ability to prepare before and after the 'Community Spread' hits the news and becomes common knowledge.
Relevant Sources:
- On early action: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1235201554510155776
- On other countries responses: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1235247582617702401
- WSJ appeal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-may-have-you-working-at-home-11583279399
- Washington state is a bit ahead of us: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-seeing-explosion-in-coronavirus-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/
Epidemic viruses are fought on the community level, not on the individual level. This means that the important metric to pay attention to is the community health, not your own individual health. Your health and the spread of the virus is inextricably linked to health of those around you, so act like it. For those young healthy people that have almost 0% chance of getting anything worse than the flu, you are equally able to spread the virus to those around you. The reason to begin practicing Social Distancing now, is for health of the community and those around you, not for your own health.
Given:
- There were multiple unique instances of the coronavirus coming to Washington state.
- There are many confirmed cases in Westchester county
- NYC is one of the most well connected and traveled to cities in the world.
- NYC has not yet begun thorough testing. Begins Friday.
I have 0 doubt that 'Community Spread' is happening in NYC right now.
- Local testing in NYC begins Friday. The number of confirmed cases will increase substantially after Friday.
- Some time after this, we will see articles about how 'Community Spread' is and has been occurring in NYC.
- New York City / State will declare a state of emergency. This isn't a big deal, just enables new response tools. LA just did it.
- Some authoritative institution will advise various social distancing procedures, like what I described above.
We don't need to wait 1 or 2 weeks for a ridiculously slow moving institution to inform us what the obvious reality is and how to act in response. We're adults that can think and decide for ourselves, know how to respond, and act appropriately. The fact that there been such little testing in NYC thus far is criminal and a major setback. Our health and media institutions need to follow procedure, and get quantified numbers before they can act, which is currently blocked by lack of testing.
There are many ways one can act like an immature child in this situation. They are:
- Freaking out. Don't do this. We'll get through this. If you get it, the symptoms will most likely be like a cold or flu.
- Deny reality. Yes, this is major uncomfortable change. Don't let your avoidance of these feelings prevent you from acting. Pretending this doesn't exist will only delay action and make it worse.
- Wait for a health institution or media outlet to do your thinking for you. The knowledge is freely available for you to make your own decisions.
A mature response involves taking prudent and appropriate steps now while not overreacting, and ideally following the advice in the document.