16-poissonBA.R

# Simulation with average eggs laid, egg size and group size, w/ and w/o parasitism
seqX <- seq(-3, 3, length.out = 100)
probsNoPar <- sapply(seqX, function(x){
      scenario <- ilogit(a + x*bA)
      probs <- calculate(scenario, draws)
      return(unlist(probs))
})
probsPar <- sapply(seqX, function(x){
      scenario <- ilogit(a + x*bA + bP + x*bPA)
      probs <- calculate(scenario, draws)
      return(unlist(probs))
})

plot(seqX, apply(probsNoPar, 2, mean), type = "l", ylim = 0:1,
     xlab = "Min age (standardized)", ylab = "P(Successful)",
     yaxp = c(0, 1, 2))
rethinking::shade(apply(probsNoPar, 2, rethinking::HPDI, prob = .95),
                  seqX)
lines(seqX, apply(probsPar, 2, mean), lty = 2, col = "red")
rethinking::shade(apply(probsPar, 2, rethinking::HPDI, prob = .95),
                  seqX, col = rgb(1,0,0,.25))