Code to create plot in https://twitter.com/mrcaseb/status/1507045349843742725

draft_first_round_percentages.R

library(tidyverse)

drafts <- nflreadr::load_draft_picks()

draft_order <- rvest::read_html("https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_NFL_Draft") |> 
  rvest::html_table() |> 
  purrr::pluck(5) |> 
  janitor::clean_names() |> 
  select(round = rnd, pick = pick_no, team = nfl_team, notes) |> 
  mutate(across(c(round, pick), as.numeric)) |> 
  mutate(season = 2022) |> 
  na_if("")

df <- drafts |> 
  bind_rows(draft_order) |> 
  filter(round == 1) |> 
  group_by(season) |> 
  summarise(
    n_teams = n_distinct(team),
    n_picks = n()
  ) |> 
  mutate(
    first_round_rate = n_teams / n_picks
  )

col <- "#F47B00FF"
current_year <- 2022
current_data <- df |> filter(season == current_year)
anno_text <- glue::glue("As of today, only {current_data$n_teams} of {current_data$n_picks} NFL teams\nhave a first-round pick in the {current_year} draft.\nThe lowest percentage since at least {min(df$season)}.")

p <- ggplot(df, aes(x = forcats::fct_reorder(as.factor(season), first_round_rate), y = first_round_rate)) +
  geom_segment(aes(xend = forcats::fct_reorder(as.factor(season), first_round_rate), yend = 0.75), color = "grey50") +
  geom_point(color = col, size = 3) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent, breaks = seq(0.75, 1, 0.05), limits = c(0.75, 1)) +
  scale_x_discrete("Draftyear", labels = function(x) paste0("'", substr(x,3,4))) +
  labs(
    y = tools::toTitleCase("Percentage of NFL teams having a 1st round pick"),
    caption = glue::glue("Figure:@mrcaseb | Data:@pfref | {lubridate::today()}")
  ) +
  ggthemes::theme_fivethirtyeight(base_size = 11, base_family = "Roboto Condensed") +
  theme(
    plot.title.position = "plot",
    panel.grid.major.x = element_blank(),
    axis.title = element_text()
  ) +
  annotate("curve",
    x = "1986", y = 0.955,
    xend = "2022", yend = 0.755, 
    curvature = 0.1, arrow = arrow(type = "closed", length = unit(0.15, "inches"), angle = 20),
    color = "#0C46A0FF"
  ) +
  annotate("label",
    x = "1986", y = 0.975,
    label = anno_text, 
    hjust = 0, vjust = 0.5,
    family = "Roboto Condensed", 
    fill = "#F0F0F0",
    size = 6, color = "#0C46A0FF"
  ) +
  NULL

p