sb_teams_ats.R

library(tidyverse)
library(nflverse)
#> ── Attaching packages ─────────────────────────────────── nflverse 1.0.1.9000 ──
#> ✓ nflfastR 4.3.0.9008     ✓ nflreadr 1.1.3     
#> ✓ nflseedR 1.0.2.9001     ✓ nflplotR 1.0.0.9000
#> ✓ nfl4th   1.0.1.9000
#> ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Ready to go! ──
options(dplyr.summarise.inform = FALSE)
options(nflreadr.verbose = FALSE)
s <- nflreadr::load_schedules(TRUE)

g <- s |>
  nflreadr::clean_homeaway(invert = "result") |>
  dplyr::mutate(
    spread_line = dplyr::case_when(
      location == "home" ~ spread_line,
      location == "away" ~ -spread_line,
      TRUE ~ NA_real_
    ),
    ats = ifelse(result > spread_line, 1, 0)
  ) |> 
  dplyr::group_by(season, team) |> 
  dplyr::arrange(week) |> 
  dplyr::mutate(
    sb_team = ifelse("SB" %in% game_type, 1, 0),
    sb_winner = if_else(sb_team == 1 & last(result) > 0, 1, 0, missing = 0)
  ) |> 
  dplyr::filter(!is.na(result)) |>
  dplyr::group_by(season, team) |> 
  dplyr::summarise(
    games = dplyr::n(),
    sb_team = collapse::fmode(sb_team),
    sb_winner = collapse::fmode(sb_winner),
    ats_w = collapse::fsum(result > spread_line, na.rm = TRUE),
    ats_l = collapse::fsum(result < spread_line, na.rm = TRUE),
    ats_t = collapse::fsum(result == spread_line, na.rm = TRUE),
    cover = ats_w / (ats_w + ats_l),
    ats_p = collapse::fsum(result - spread_line, na.rm = TRUE),
    mov = collapse::fsum(result, na.rm = TRUE) / games,
    ats_margin = collapse::fmean(result - spread_line, na.rm = TRUE),
  )

chart <- g |> dplyr::filter(sb_team == 1)

p <- ggplot(chart, aes(x = cover, y = ats_margin, alpha = ifelse(sb_winner == 1, 0.8, 0.2))) +
  nflplotR::geom_nfl_logos(aes(team_abbr = team), width = 0.05) +
  ggrepel::geom_text_repel(aes(label = season), hjust = 0, size = 2.5, bg.color = "white", color = "black") +
  scale_x_continuous(labels = scales::percent) +
  scale_alpha_identity() +
  ggthemes::theme_fivethirtyeight(base_size = 11, base_family = "Roboto Condensed") +
  labs(
    title = tools::toTitleCase("How Super Bowl Participants performed against the vegas point spread"),
    subtitle = "Super Bowl losing teams transparently displayed. Numbers include postseason.",
    x = "Spread Cover Percentage",
    y = tools::toTitleCase("Average Margin against the spread"),
    caption = glue::glue("Figure:@mrcaseb | Data:nflverse | {lubridate::today()}")
  ) +
  theme(
    plot.title.position = "plot",
    axis.title = element_text(),
  ) +
  NULL

p

Output