A theory of Donald Trump's motivation and likely intention to quit the race

TrumpTheory.md

Here's my theory of Donald Trump's presidential campaign, in one place so readers don't have to root though my tweets.

Back in October and November, I started joking that Trump and Bill Clinton had a running bet, or a dare of sorts going. Trump's candidacy was an ego-stroking stunt intended to amuse the bored billionaire and leave the Clintons beholden to him.

Then GOP support began to drift Trumpward, and I hinted that party insiders might have realized that the fix is in. Maybe they were hoping for Trump to burn out the much-unloved Ted Cruz.

By January I had doubled down on my prediction. I remained convinced that he would devise a face-saving exit. This conviction got harder and harder to sustain as Trump rolled over the other GOP candidates in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. I got nervous.

It's admittedly not looking good for me. When you're this deep in the hole, though, why not stay in the game? Here's a plausible-seeming psychological model (in the form of a series of tweets from the night of Feb 23) that could motivate Trump to stay in the race a bit longer without intending to go the distance:

Donald Trump doesn't want to Make America Great by being president. He thinks a nation that admires Donald Trump is ipso facto Great.

Trump's campaign is both the means and the end. He's performing a Tony Robbins seminar for a nation of losers.

Gathering crowds to bask in his presence is, per Trump, more salutary for the national character than any policy would be.

[...]his messianic self-image is not President Trump, but Candidate Trump.

Finally, the falsifiable statement:

Trump will drop out, no matter how popular he gets. I don't dare predict when, but he will voluntarily leave the race.