News coverage of party leaders compared to Swedish 2018 election results

valresultat-partiledare-mediebevakning.r

library(gganimate)
library(ggrepel)
library(lubridate)
library(tidyverse)

# The order is FUBAR.
partycolors <- c("#006AB3", "#000077", "#52BDEC", "#E8112d",
                 "#83CF39", "#009933", "#DA291C", "#E8AC41")

# Mediearkivet keywords:
#
# "jimmie åkesson"
# "stefan löfven"
# "annie lööf"
# "ebba busch thor"
# "isabella lövin"
# "gustav fridolin"
# "jonas sjöstedt"
# "jan björklund"
# "ulf kristersson"

# Each MP party leader separate:
lovin <- c(1649,1148,1074,755,1983,1089,1361,2068,1284) # "isabella lövin" 
fridolin <- c(642,943,1519,1181,1780,1148,1396,2725,1163) # "gustav fridolin"
mp <- lovin + fridolin

# "isabella lövin" OR "gustav fridolin"
mp_or <- c(2056,1853,2305,1774,2875,2067,2461,4252,1947)

# Data:
# total = total number of articles from Mediearkivet 2018 (up to 2018-09-13), used the keywords above.
# votes = vote share election night, from https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html
# jan:sep = number of articles each month from Mediearkivet
df <- read.table(text = "name,total,votes,january,february,march,april,may,june,july,august,september
Åkesson (SD),21448,17.6,929,994,1349,1252,2310,2237,2012,4493,5882 
Löfven (S),58469,28.4,4891,4950,7931,4887,7304,6590,6209,7945,7789
Lööf (C),20584,8.6,1298,1446,1525,2066,1967,2014,2429,4112,3735
Busch Thor (KD),13849,6.4,595,980,1313,826,1471,911,1122,3531,3113
Lövin/Fridolin (MP),24908,4.3,2291,2091,2593,1936,3763,2237,2757,4793,2447
Sjöstedt (V),13016,7.9,1313,1396,880,826,1508,1299,1096,2658,2051
Björklund (L),16975,5.5,1078,779,1228,1809,1794,2038,1653,3840,2758
Kristersson (M),26897,19.8,1708,1550,1687,1939,3932,2689,2411,5925,5067", sep=",", header=TRUE)

# Use MP "isabella lövin" OR "gustav fridolin".
df[5, 4:12] <- mp_or
  
# Make long, add date.
df_long <- df %>% 
  gather("month", "n", january:september) %>% 
  mutate(date = case_when(month == "january" ~ as.Date("2018-01-01"),
                          month == "february" ~ as.Date("2018-02-01"),
                          month == "march" ~ as.Date("2018-03-01"),
                          month == "april" ~ as.Date("2018-04-01"),
                          month == "may" ~ as.Date("2018-05-01"),
                          month == "june" ~ as.Date("2018-06-01"),
                          month == "july" ~ as.Date("2018-07-01"),
                          month == "august" ~ as.Date("2018-08-01"),
                          month == "september" ~ as.Date("2018-09-01")))

# Calculate intercept and slope for diagonal.
#coef(lm(total ~ votes, df))

# Create static plot.
gg <- df %>% 
  ggplot(aes(votes, total)) +
  geom_point(size=3) + 
  geom_text_repel(aes(label=name), seed=42, force = .7) +
  annotate("label", x=7, y=50000, label="Överrepresenterad") +
  annotate("label", x=25, y=20000, label="Underrepresenterad") +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 100, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 6e6, 1e4)) +
  #geom_abline(intercept=0, slope=1) +
  #scale_x_log10() +
  #scale_y_log10() +
  labs(title = "Mediebevakning av partiledare jämfört med valresultatet",
       x = "Andel röster valnatten (procent)",
       y = "Antal artiklar Mediearkivet 2018\n(t.o.m. 2018-09-13)") +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.position = "none",
        panel.grid = element_blank()) 

gg

# Save static plot.
ggsave("valresultat-partiledare-mediebevakning.png", 
       width=7, height=5, device="png", dpi=300)


# Create static plot with facet for each month.
gg_facet <- df_long %>% 
  ggplot(aes(votes, n, color=name)) +
  geom_point(size=3) + 
  geom_text_repel(aes(label=name), seed=42, force = .7) +
  scale_color_manual(values = partycolors) + 
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 100, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 6e6, 1e4)) +
  labs(title = "Mediebevakning av partiledare jämfört med valresultatet",
       x = "Andel röster valnatten (procent)",
       y = "Antal artiklar Mediearkivet 2018\n(t.o.m. 2018-09-13)") +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.position = "none",
        panel.grid = element_blank())  +
  facet_wrap(~month)

gg_facet


# Create animated plot.
gg_animated <- df_long %>% 
  ggplot(aes(votes, n, color=name)) +
  geom_point(size=3) + 
  scale_color_manual(values = partycolors) + 
  geom_text_repel(aes(label=name), seed=42, force = .7) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 100, 5)) +
  scale_y_continuous(breaks = seq(0, 8000, 1000)) +
  labs(title = "News coverage of party leaders compared to Swedish 2018 election results",
       subtitle = "Month: {round_date(frame_time, 'month')}",
       x = "Vote share election night (percent)",
       y = "Number of articles\n(Mediearkivet up to 2018-09-13)") +
  theme_bw() +
  theme(legend.position = "none",
        panel.grid = element_blank()) +
  transition_time(date) +
  enter_fade() + 
  exit_shrink() +
  ease_aes("quadratic-in-out")

# Gif
ani <- animate(gg_animated, nframes = 200, fps = 10, width = 550, 
        height = 450, renderer = gifski_renderer(loop = F))

anim_save("partyleaders-votes-media-animation.gif", ani)

See animation at https://twitter.com/peterdalle/status/1040281663517990912.