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Created July 1, 2022 17:17
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Dimash official YT channel subscriber count growth
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​ @A moment with Musasia 😍

This comment is mostly just somewhere to store some info. It may well interest no one else but me.

In my above comment I wrote "His official YT channel had grown to about a million subscribers about a year ago. I think it's now approaching 2 million". I realized after I'd written it that I was quite unsure about the exact number a year ago. So I investigated. It turns out it is approaching 2M but was about 1.3M a year ago, not 1M. This comment corrects the record with the summary I just gave plus a ridiculous amount of detail below that will almost certainly interest no one but me.

Before I get to the hard data, let me say a bit about where I'm coming from.

First, I want folk to have a great Dimash journey, with a focus on what is true, not what is claimed. We all know one part of this truth -- how we feel. I was Dimashified just a few weeks ago, discovering him on May 22 this year. I've been having a ball since --- including balling my eyes out -- and it's awesome. There is lots of great music out there, and Dimash is "just" one mere mortal voice (even if it he is what his name means), but right now I'm flying so high on his art that I find myself driven to want the whole world to experience it. And I think such an impulse is well served by writing comments when I witness the birth of a new-born Dear, supporting them as they find their feet after they've first been Dimashified, and perhaps amplifying their sense of discovery, wonder, and instant gratification. 💚

I recommend you stop reading this comment here unless you are absolutely a nerd.

One thing I don't want to do is spread misinformation. I'm a numbers/math/data guy. While I'm sure some Dears are also into number crunching, I haven't yet seen especially nerdy math/data comments in the hundreds (thousand?) YT reactions I've checked out. So to balance out other Dears' comments about him and his art, I'm going to focus on number games.

(Beyond being a nerd, here's a bit about me and my Dimash journey so far. I'm 62 in Earth years. Like many, my age in Dear Years is zero -- I discovered him May 22 this year. My age in Dear Ears is something like 30-40 different songs, most of which I've listened to many times, sometimes different performances but also repeats of the exact same video, directly of indirectly as part of a reaction. I just made up the terms "Dear Years" and "Dear Ears". They sound corny -- maybe waaay too corny -- but I'm just having fun writing this comment.)

I haven't much explored fan sites like https://dimash.fandom.com/wiki/Dimash to see what they have to say about subscriber count growth. Maybe they already cover what I'll cover below. But if not, you may have a bit of a "scoop" with the following, in the sense that I've not seen anything like it, and I could well believe no one else will have focused on his data in the way I do below. And even if info claiming much the same already exists, I prefer to go back to primary sources to verify things -- I'd do something like what I do below regardless of what anyone else writes.

OK. Here's archive.org's page tracking/archiving the official Dimash YT channel: https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.youtube.com/c/DimashQudaibergen_official

I trust archive.org. archive.org is run by a non-profit foundation. It archives older versions of web pages. I consider archive.org to be about as trustworthy as information can get in the sea of misinformation and disinformation that the web tends to be. This includes my own accidental misinformation in my post above -- I've discovered that I over-estimated the rate of growth of his subscriber count. Anyhoo, in this comment I will document what I have just found out about his official channel's subscriber count growth over the last year.

My guess is that you're not a nerd like me, but I invite you to at least consider visiting the above archive.org page. That way you can perhaps research archive.org yourself, and draw your own conclusions about the trustworthiness of the following, and also know how to see older pages on the web if you've never known before how to do that. If you find archive.org confusing, feel free to ask me how to use their site. I'm not an expert but I know enough to dig out old info such as what follows and help you do the same.

Anyhoo, let's move on to what I discovered.

There's a sentence on the page which says "Saved 9 times between May 2, 2021 and May 10, 2022."

So they only have data for one year.

If you look at the calendar for 2022 it's clear they have "snapshots" of the page taken on 3 days in 2022: Jan 19th, March 14th, and May 10th. If you click on 2021, you should see they have snapshots taken on May 2 2021, and August 30th 2021. So, snapshots taken on five days over the last year, May 2021 thru May 2022.

And the counts are:

And to bring us fully up to date, not using archive.org but instead looking at the page as it is today:

Which leads to these subscriber growth rates:

  • 1.48 / 1.32 from May 2 2021 to August 30 2021 = roughly 12% growth in roughly 4 months, which would annualize to roughly 40%.

  • 1.73 / 1.48 from August 30 2021 to January 19 2022 = roughly 17% growth in roughly 4.6 months, which would annualize to roughly 50%.

  • 1.82 / 1.73 from January 19 this year to March 14 = roughly 5% growth in roughly 1.8 months, which would annualize to roughly 40%.

  • 1.91 / 1.82 from March 14 to May 10 = roughly 5% growth in roughly 1.9. months, which would annualize to roughly 35%.

  • 1.96 / 1.91 from May 10 to July 1 = roughly 3% growth in roughly 1.7 months, which would annualize to roughly 20%.

So, the subscriber count for his official account grew at an annualized rate of around 50% thru last summer, slowing after that with a big slow down by March 14th this year, which slow down has increased since to less than half the rate of subscriber growth that it had had.

One can speculate why. Maybe it's the war (which started Feb 22)? Perhaps Dimash massively reduced his activity since then? What is clear though is that the subscriber growth rate for his official YT channel is currently slowing down.

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