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| 已知：人群中千分之一的人会得癌症 | |
| 那么假设就是10000个人，10个人会得癌症 | |
| 患癌症检测成阳性概率为 99%，10个人得癌症，9.9个人检测成阳性，0.1个人检测成阴性 | |
| 健康检测成阴性概率为 99%，9990个人健康，9890.1 个人检测成阳性，99.9个人检测成阳性 | |
| 那么就可以计算出，如果检测成阳性，换癌症概率为： | |
| 9.9/(9.9+99.9) = 9.9/109.8 = 0.09 也就是 9% ， | |
| 这里要明确检测出阳性的概率计算 | |
| 有哪些数学上的事实，没有一定数学知识的人不会相信？ - 苗华栋的回答 - 知乎 | |
| https://www.zhihu.com/question/288093713/answer/973065190 | |
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