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Deconstructing the Rental Rate Term Structure in Commercial Real Estate — Reggie Chan, CFA, FRICS

Deconstructing the Rental Rate Term Structure in Commercial Real Estate Using Implied Value of Term Flexibility

Author: Reggie Chan, CFA, FRICS Co-Author/Editor: Google Gemini 2.5 Pro Experimental 03-25

Version: 2.0 Date: March 27, 2025

Use of AI Disclosure: I created the original theoretical concept, working paper and model in Excel back in February 2016. I used AI to rewrite/professionalize my paper, convert Excel into python code and create a generalized function, which I could not do.

Foreward

This paper is long overdue.

I had created the original working paper/theorem along with working Excel models back when I was a VP of Asset Management & Leasing at Artis REIT. The core theory and principles were sound and the models were informally used as guideposts. However, life simply got in the way and the working paper sat in a folder for years. Back then, it would have taken days, it not months to properly format and/or create the more generalized recursive function as a math formula. For one thing, I can't write in Latex, and I'm not any better with using the formula function in MS Word.

It's now 2025 and I'm realizing that SOTA large language models (LLMs) are particularly good with mathematical formulas and mathematical reasoning, even when they are actually very bad with mathematical calculations, outside of a function call. It is now possible to describe a mathematical function or property in plain english and the LLM will build it out for you. My math skills aren't good enough to derive the formula on my own, but it is good enough to vet it after it's been created (most of the time). In this particular case, I already had a working Excel model to vet the results duplicated in Python.

As this revised paper is written approximately eight years after the initial draft, I had long forgotten some of the underlying theories that had driven it in the first place. I was pleasantly surprised when Gemini created a recursive model as a generalized formula (to be analogous to the bootstrapping theory in finance) whereas I had originally created a non-recursive model, since it had to be done in Excel and I didn't want to use iterative calculations.

I won't lie. I don't think I could ever get the quality of the narrative up to the level of a finance textbook or academic paper, no matter how many times I tried. Plus, when you have a wife and young child, it's nearly impossible to produce anything intelligent anyways!

For those of you who have half-baked ideas in the oven and never had the time or the ability to finish it properly, technology has advanced to the point where you can get it across the finish line.

The issue becomes...how much of the output can you actually claim as your own? Originally, it was meant to be a copy-editing exercise of, "Rewrite my paper in a more professional tone" and then it turned into, "Act as a peer reviewer and make suggestions for improving the quality..." and before you know it, there's python code and a Discussion section.

This is what I struggle with.

Abstract

Pricing leases across varying terms is a persistent challenge in commercial real estate (CRE). Unlike fixed-income markets where longer terms typically command higher rates (yields), CRE often exhibits an inverse relationship – longer lease terms secure lower rental rates. This paper proposes a novel approach to model this "rental rate term structure" by adapting the bootstrapping concept from finance and interpreting the premium charged for shorter terms as the implied value of tenant flexibility or, equivalently, the landlord's required risk premium for shorter commitments. Using a base long-term market rate and a standard market month-to-month (MTM) premium, we demonstrate a methodology to derive a consistent set of rental rates for any lease term shorter than the base term. The framework posits that a shorter-term lease can be viewed, from a present value perspective, as economically equivalent to a longer-term lease incorporating the risk of reverting to MTM terms earlier. By calculating the net effective rent (NER), assuming payments in advance, required to make a landlord indifferent between these scenarios using an appropriate discount rate, we can bootstrap a complete term structure of rental rates via equivalent recursive and direct formulas. This provides asset and leasing managers with a theoretically grounded, yet practical, tool for pricing lease term flexibility and risk, while acknowledging necessary simplifying assumptions.

1. Introduction

Commercial real estate asset and leasing managers constantly face the challenge of negotiating rental rates for various lease terms. A prospective tenant may counter a standard offer with a request for a significantly shorter or longer term, or the landlord may wish to present a menu of options. Determining the appropriate rental rate adjustment for different term lengths, ensuring fair compensation for the associated risks and flexibility (or lack thereof), is crucial for optimizing asset performance.

A common observation in CRE markets is an inverse relationship between lease term length and the agreed-upon rental rate per square foot (psf): landlords often grant lower rates for longer commitments. This contrasts sharply with typical yield curves in fixed-income markets, where longer maturities usually correspond to higher interest rates. The CRE rental curve can thus be viewed as analogous to an "inverted yield curve." The rationale stems from the landlord's perspective: longer leases provide income certainty, reduce vacancy risk, minimize recurring transaction costs (commissions, legal, tenant improvements - TIs), and enhance valuation stability. Conversely, short-term leases, especially month-to-month (MTM) arrangements, offer tenants maximum flexibility but expose landlords to significant income volatility and frequent re-leasing friction.

Traditional fixed-income term structure models, like bootstrapping spot rates from forward rates, are difficult to apply directly to CRE. The primary obstacle is the absence of a liquid market for forward leases – landlords do not typically quote rates today for leases commencing years in the future. This prevents the direct construction of a rental term structure using standard bond mathematics. While academic literature has explored real options analysis in real estate development and investment (e.g., Titman, 1985; Quigg, 1993), applying formal option pricing models (like Black-Scholes or binomial trees) directly to lease term pricing remains complex due to data requirements (volatility), complexities of sequential exercise rights, and lack of traded underlying assets representing lease value. Other research focuses on vacancy modeling and its impact on rent (e.g., Grenadier, 1995), but often doesn't provide a direct mechanism for deriving a full term structure from observable base and MTM rates.

This paper introduces a methodology to bridge this gap by utilizing the observable market premium for MTM leases. We argue that this premium implicitly contains information about the market price of term flexibility. By adapting the bootstrapping technique – typically used to derive spot interest rates from bond prices – we can work backward from a known long-term rate and the MTM rate to derive a consistent set of rates for intermediate terms. The approach calculates the "implied value of term flexibility" or the "risk premium for shorter commitment" based on present value (PV) indifference, offering a balance between theoretical grounding and practical application.

This paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 outlines the methodology, defining inputs, explaining the PV indifference framework, detailing the adapted bootstrapping process, and presenting generalized recursive and direct formulas. Section 3 presents a worked example using the recursive approach with a 10% annual discount rate. Section 4 demonstrates the application of the direct formula. Section 5 discusses interpretation, practical implications, compares the approach to formal option pricing, and critically examines the model's assumptions and limitations. Section 6 concludes.

2. Methodology: Bootstrapping Rental Rates via PV Indifference

The core idea is to equate the present value of a shorter-term lease followed by the MTM period with a hypothetical longer lease that incorporates this MTM risk, thereby deriving the appropriate rate for the shorter term.

2.1 Key Inputs and Definitions

  • Base Case Lease Rate ($R_{Base}$): The market net effective rental rate (NER) psf/year for the longest standard lease term ($T$ months) commonly observed. For simplicity, this initial model defines NER before variable incentives (free rent, TIs) and transaction costs (commissions), focusing on base rent and fixed operating cost recoveries.
  • Month-to-Month Rate ($R_{MTM}$): The market rental rate psf/year for an MTM tenancy, typically a premium over $R_{Base}$ (e.g., 125%-150%). This premium compensates the landlord for term risk. See Section 5.3 for a deeper discussion of this input as a proxy.
  • Discount Rate ($r$): An annual discount rate reflecting the time value of money and the risk of the rental income stream. The choice of $r$ is crucial and significantly impacts the resulting term structure. While options like the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) exist, in a CRE context, practitioners might more commonly use property-level unlevered discount rates (often related to market capitalization rates) or levered required equity returns (IRR targets) as benchmarks. The ideal rate should reflect the opportunity cost and risk associated with locking in lease cash flows for varying durations. The sensitivity of the model output to this rate choice underscores the need for careful selection and justification (see Section 5.3). The annual rate $r$ is converted to an effective monthly rate $i$: $$i = (1+r)^{1/12} - 1$$
  • Net Effective Rent (NER): Simplified here as a constant annual rate psf, paid monthly in advance.

2.2 The Present Value Indifference Framework

The difference ($R_{MTM} - R_{Base}$) represents the annualized market price a tenant implicitly pays for maximum flexibility, or equivalently, the premium a landlord requires for maximum term uncertainty. We extend this logic by assuming the landlord should be indifferent, in PV terms, between scenarios involving different term commitments, ultimately relating shorter terms back to the base term $T$ and the MTM alternative.

2.3 Derivation Process: Adapting Bootstrapping for Rental Rates

This process adapts the bootstrapping methodology commonly used in fixed-income markets to derive the theoretical spot rate curve from coupon bond prices or yields (see, e.g., Fabozzi, 2007). In finance, bootstrapping starts with the shortest-maturity instruments and iteratively solves for longer-term spot rates, ensuring consistency with observed market prices and preventing arbitrage. Here, we work backward from the longest known term ($T$) because we lack forward rental rates but have the crucial MTM rate as an anchor for the shortest effective duration. $R_{MTM}$ serves as the market's implied required return for the period immediately following a shorter committed term's expiry.

The process starts with the base rate $R_{Base}$ for term $T$ and calculates the rate for the next shorter standard term (e.g., $T-\Delta t$). We find the constant annual rate ($R_{T, \text{opt}(T-12)}$) applied over the full original term T that yields the same total PV as receiving $R_{Base}$ for $(T-12)$ months plus receiving $R_{MTM}$ for the final 12 months. This rate embodies the risk of the lease reverting to MTM after month $T-12$. We then set the rate for a firm $(T-12)$ month lease equal to this value: $R_{T-12} = R_{T, \text{opt}(T-12)}$.

This is repeated iteratively, as demonstrated in the example in Section 3. Each step uses the previously derived rate and the $R_{MTM}$ premium to solve for the next shorter term's rate. This sequential calculation can be generalized.

2.4 Generalized Formulas for the Rental Rate Term Structure

The iterative bootstrapping process can be expressed concisely. Let's define:

  • $R_k$: The constant annual NER determined by the model for a lease term of exactly $k$ months.
  • $T$: The duration (months) of the longest standard lease term ($R_T = R_{Base}$).
  • $R_{MTM}$: The known constant annual MTM NER.
  • $\Delta t$: The time step (months) for bootstrapping backwards (e.g., $\Delta t = 12$ or $\Delta t = 1$).
  • $i$: The effective monthly discount rate.
  • $A(k)$: The PV annuity due factor for $k$ months at rate $i$. Assuming $i \neq 0$: $$A(k) = \frac{1 - (1+i)^{-k}}{i / (1+i)} = \frac{1 - (1+i)^{-k}}{d}$$ where $d = i / (1+i)$ is the effective discount rate per period. If $i=0$, $A(k)=k$.

1. Recursive Formula: This formula directly reflects the step-by-step bootstrapping logic.

Theorem (Recursive): Given the rate $R_n$ for a term of $n$ months ($t_{min} + \Delta t \le n \le T$, $n$ is a multiple of $\Delta t$), the rate $R_{n-\Delta t}$ for a term of $n-\Delta t$ months is given by:

$$ R_{n-\Delta t} = \frac{ R_n \cdot A(n-\Delta t) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(n) - A(n-\Delta t)] }{ A(n) } $$

Starting Condition: $R_T = R_{Base}$.

Procedure: Apply the formula recursively, starting with $n=T$ to find $R_{T-\Delta t}$, then using $n=T-\Delta t$ to find $R_{T-2\Delta t}$, and so on.

Interpretation: As shown previously, $R_{n-\Delta t}$ is a PV-weighted average of $R_n$ and $R_{MTM}$.

2. Direct Formula: An equivalent formula allows for the direct calculation of $R_k$ for any term $k$ ($0 < k \le T$) without recursion. It arises from setting the PV of receiving $R_k$ for the full base term $T$ equal to the PV of receiving $R_{Base}$ for $k$ months followed by $R_{MTM}$ for the remaining $T-k$ months.

Theorem (Direct): The rate $R_k$ for a lease term of $k$ months ($0 < k \le T$) is given by:

$$ R_k = \frac{ R_{Base} \cdot A(k) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(T) - A(k)] }{ A(T) } $$

Equivalence: Both the recursive and direct formulas are derived from the same PV indifference principle and yield identical results for $R_k$. The recursive formula highlights the sequential bootstrapping process, while the direct formula provides computational convenience for calculating a specific term's rate.

3. Example Calculation and Results (Recursive Approach, r=10%)

This section demonstrates the calculation using the recursive approach outlined in Section 2.3 and the recursive formula from Section 2.4.

Assume:

  • Base Case: 5-year ($T=60$ months) lease at $R_{Base} = $8.00$ psf/year.
  • MTM Rate: $R_{MTM} = $10.00$ psf/year (125% of $R_{Base}$).
  • Discount Rate: $r = 10%$ p.a. (illustrative). Monthly rate $i = (1.10)^{1/12} - 1 \approx 0.007974$.
  • Time Step: $\Delta t = 12$ months.
  • Payments: Monthly in advance (Annuity Due).

PV Annuity Due Factors $A(k)$ at $i \approx 0.7974%$: $A(60) \approx 47.9176$, $A(48) \approx 40.0688$, $A(36) \approx 31.4351$, $A(24) \approx 21.9381$, $A(12) \approx 11.4914$.

(Note: Calculations use factors derived computationally, slight differences may exist vs. manual calculation due to precision)

3.1 Calculating the 4-Year Rate ($R_{48}$)

Using the recursive logic starting from $R_{60} = R_{Base}$: $$ R_{48} = \frac{ R_{Base} \cdot A(48) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(60) - A(48)] }{ A(60) } $$ $$ R_{48} = \frac{ 8.00 \cdot 40.0688 + 10.00 \cdot (47.9176 - 40.0688) }{ 47.9176 } \approx $8.328 $$ Set $R_{48} = $8.33$ psf/year.

3.2 Calculating the 3-Year Rate ($R_{36}$)

Using the recursive formula with $n=48$, $R_{48}=8.328$: $$ R_{36} = \frac{ R_{48} \cdot A(36) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(48) - A(36)] }{ A(48) } $$ $$ R_{36} = \frac{ 8.328 \cdot 31.4351 + 10.00 \cdot (40.0688 - 31.4351) }{ 40.0688 } \approx $8.688 $$ Set $R_{36} = $8.69$ psf/year.

3.3 Calculating the 2-Year Rate ($R_{24}$)

Using $n=36$, $R_{36}=8.688$: $$ R_{24} = \frac{ R_{36} \cdot A(24) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(36) - A(24)] }{ A(36) } $$ $$ R_{24} = \frac{ 8.688 \cdot 21.9381 + 10.00 \cdot (31.4351 - 21.9381) }{ 31.4351 } \approx $9.084 $$ Set $R_{24} = $9.08$ psf/year.

3.4 Calculating the 1-Year Rate ($R_{12}$)

Using $n=24$, $R_{24}=9.084$: $$ R_{12} = \frac{ R_{24} \cdot A(12) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(24) - A(12)] }{ A(24) } $$ $$ R_{12} = \frac{ 9.084 \cdot 11.4914 + 10.00 \cdot (21.9381 - 11.4914) }{ 21.9381 } \approx $9.520 $$ Set $R_{12} = $9.52$ psf/year.

3.5 The Resulting Rental Rate Term Structure (r=10%, Advance)

Lease Term (Years) Lease Term (Months) Calculated NER ($ psf/year) Increment ($ psf/yr)
5 60 $8.00 (Base) -
4 48 $8.33 +$0.33
3 36 $8.69 +$0.36
2 24 $9.08 +$0.39
1 12 $9.52 +$0.44
Month-to-Month 1 $10.00 (Input) +$0.48 (to MTM)

The model generates the expected inverted curve using the recursive bootstrapping approach.

4. Example Calculation (Direct Formula Application, r=10%)

This section demonstrates the calculation of specific points on the term structure using the Direct Formula derived in Section 2.4, confirming the results obtained recursively in Section 3. We use the same parameters: $R_{Base} = $8.00$, $R_{MTM} = $10.00$, $T=60$, $r=10%$ ($i \approx 0.007974$), advance payments. The relevant PV annuity due factors are $A(60) \approx 47.9176$, $A(48) \approx 40.0688$, $A(12) \approx 11.4914$.

4.1 Calculating the 4-Year Rate ($R_{48}$) Directly

Using the direct formula with $k=48$: $$ R_{48} = \frac{ R_{Base} \cdot A(48) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(T) - A(48)] }{ A(T) } $$ $$ R_{48} = \frac{ 8.00 \cdot A(48) + 10.00 \cdot [A(60) - A(48)] }{ A(60) } $$ $$ R_{48} = \frac{ 8.00 \cdot 40.0688 + 10.00 \cdot [47.9176 - 40.0688] }{ 47.9176 } $$ $$ R_{48} = \frac{ 320.5504 + 10.00 \cdot 7.8488 }{ 47.9176 } = \frac{ 320.5504 + 78.488 }{ 47.9176 } = \frac{ 399.0384 }{ 47.9176 } \approx 8.328 $$ Directly Calculated $R_{48} \approx $8.33$ psf/year, matching the result in Section 3.1.

4.2 Calculating the 1-Year Rate ($R_{12}$) Directly

Using the direct formula with $k=12$: $$ R_{12} = \frac{ R_{Base} \cdot A(12) + R_{MTM} \cdot [A(T) - A(12)] }{ A(T) } $$ $$ R_{12} = \frac{ 8.00 \cdot A(12) + 10.00 \cdot [A(60) - A(12)] }{ A(60) } $$ $$ R_{12} = \frac{ 8.00 \cdot 11.4914 + 10.00 \cdot [47.9176 - 11.4914] }{ 47.9176 } $$ $$ R_{12} = \frac{ 91.9312 + 10.00 \cdot 36.4262 }{ 47.9176 } = \frac{ 91.9312 + 364.262 }{ 47.9176 } = \frac{ 456.1932 }{ 47.9176 } \approx 9.520 $$ Directly Calculated $R_{12} \approx $9.52$ psf/year, matching the result in Section 3.4.

These examples confirm that the direct formula provides an equivalent method for calculating the term structure rates, offering computational convenience without altering the underlying model results.

5. Discussion

**5.1 Interpretation and Practical Implications

The derived term structure provides a quantitative basis for pricing leases. The incremental rent increases for shorter terms represent the annualized premium required by the landlord to compensate for reduced income certainty and earlier exposure to re-leasing risk/costs – effectively, the market-implied price for the tenant's term flexibility. This framework allows practitioners to:

  • Develop Consistent Pricing: Create defensible rate menus for various terms.
  • Negotiate Effectively: Justify rate adjustments based on a consistent model.
  • Analyze Proposals: Evaluate different term proposals on a comparable NER basis.
  • Benchmark Flexibility Value: Understand the implicit cost/value of term length.

It is crucial, however, to recognize that the model's outputs are highly dependent on its inputs (especially $R_{MTM}$ and $r$). The framework should be applied with careful consideration of the specific property and market context.

**5.2 Comparison to Formal Option Pricing

While using option-related terminology ("implied value of flexibility"), this model differs significantly from formal option pricing (e.g., Black-Scholes).

  • Inputs: It doesn't require estimating market rent volatility, a key input for formal models but notoriously difficult to derive reliably for specific properties or submarkets.
  • Mechanism: It relies on PV indifference using observable rates ($R_{Base}$, $R_{MTM}$), not stochastic processes or replication arguments.
  • Output: It yields a required rental rate, not a standalone option premium in currency units. The "value" is embedded within the rate structure.
  • Exercise: Tenant termination rights in leases are often sequential (Bermudan/American-like) but typically non-transferable and involve notice periods, unlike standard financial options.

This model captures the economic compensation for the risk/flexibility associated with term length, as implied by the market's pricing of the longest and shortest (MTM) durations. It bypasses the complexities and data demands of formal option models, offering a practical proxy for the value of term flexibility.

**5.3 Assumptions and Limitations

The model's practicality comes with several simplifying assumptions:

  1. The Nature of the $R_{MTM}$ Input: The model uses the observable $R_{MTM}$ as the anchor for the shortest term risk. Critically, this assumes $R_{MTM}$ accurately reflects the relevant outcome or required return for the period following a shorter lease's expiry. In reality, a landlord faces several possibilities: achieving the standard MTM rate, experiencing vacancy (zero rent plus carrying costs), incurring leasing costs (marketing, commissions, legal, TI) for a new tenant, or renegotiating a new lease (short or long term) at prevailing market rates which may differ from $R_{MTM}$ or $R_{Base}$. Therefore, $R_{MTM}$ should be viewed as a proxy for the probability-weighted expected financial outcome during that uncertain period. Sophisticated users might substitute the standard $R_{MTM}$ with a custom "Expected Reversionary Rate" reflecting their specific expectations regarding vacancy periods, re-leasing costs, and likely achievable rents upon expiry. Sensitivity analysis around the assumed $R_{MTM}$ premium (e.g., 120% vs 150% of $R_{Base}$) is highly recommended.
  2. Static Market Conditions: It assumes $R_{Base}$, the $R_{MTM}$ premium percentage, and the discount rate $r$ are constant. It doesn't inherently model expected rent growth or market volatility.
    • Impact: If market rents are expected to rise, landlords might demand higher premiums for shorter terms (steeper curve) to return to market sooner. Falling rent expectations could flatten the curve. Sensitivity analysis on $R_{Base}$ and $R_{MTM}$ can partially explore this. Incorporating explicit growth forecasts would require dynamic modeling.
  3. Exclusion of Incentives and Costs: Free rent, TIs, and commissions significantly impact true net cash flows and are often term-dependent (e.g., larger TI allowances for longer terms).
    • Impact: Since longer leases often bear higher upfront costs (like TI), the gross rental rate curve required to achieve the calculated NER curve would likely be even steeper. For example, if a 5-year deal requires $5/sf more TI than a 1-year deal, the gross rent difference must be larger than the calculated NER difference ($9.52 - $8.00 = $1.52$ in the 10% example) to compensate over the term. The PV indifference framework can be applied to full net cash flow streams including these items, but requires more complex input modeling.
  4. Discount Rate Choice and Constancy: Assumes a single rate $r$ is appropriate across all terms and reflects the correct risk premium for the lease cash flows. As noted in Section 2.1, selecting $r$ requires careful consideration within the CRE context (property-level rates, IRR targets).
    • Impact: The level of $r$ directly influences the calculated premiums. A higher $r$ discounts future MTM outcomes more heavily, leading to smaller required premiums for shorter leases (flatter curve), and vice versa. Sensitivity analysis on $r$ is crucial. Furthermore, the appropriate discount rate might arguably vary with term length itself, adding another layer of complexity not addressed here.
  5. Market Segmentation and Heterogeneity: Real estate is highly localized. The appropriate inputs ($R_{Base}$, $R_{MTM}$, $r$, typical term $T$) vary significantly by property type (office, industrial, retail), building class (A, B, C), specific location/submarket, and prevailing market conditions (landlord vs. tenant market). The derived term structure is specific to the chosen inputs and the context they represent. Applying the model requires careful calibration to the specific asset and market segment being analyzed.
  6. Tenant Credit Risk: The model does not explicitly differentiate pricing based on tenant creditworthiness. In practice, landlords assess and price this risk. A tenant with weaker credit might face higher rates across all terms or be unable to secure very long terms at the base rate offered to stronger tenants. This risk dimension can interact with term length preferences.
  7. Rational Economic Behavior: Assumes decisions are based purely on PV indifference. Negotiation leverage, tenant sophistication, specific operational needs, relationship factors, and strategic considerations invariably influence final rates.

Therefore, the model provides a theoretically grounded guideline or internal consistency check, not an absolute determinant of market pricing. Its value lies in structuring the thought process around term risk.

**6. Conclusion

This paper proposed a practical methodology, adapted from financial bootstrapping, to construct a rental rate term structure for commercial real estate using observable long-term and MTM rates. By interpreting the MTM premium as the market price for term flexibility (or landlord risk), the PV indifference approach allows for the derivation of consistent rates for intermediate terms, reflecting the characteristic inverted curve observed in CRE. This relationship is captured concisely in equivalent recursive and direct formulas, considering payments in advance.

The model offers a significant improvement over ad-hoc adjustments, providing a logical framework for pricing term risk. Its main strengths are its conceptual linkage to financial principles, its use of observable market data ($R_{Base}$, $R_{MTM}$), its mathematical tractability via the derived formulas, and its relative simplicity. Key limitations include the static market assumption, the simplified representation of the post-term expiry scenario via $R_{MTM}$, exclusion of complex incentives/costs in this basic form, sensitivity to the discount rate, and lack of accounting for market heterogeneity or tenant credit risk.

Future research could focus on incorporating dynamic elements like expected rent growth, explicit vacancy probabilities and re-leasing costs, and term-dependent costs/incentives directly into the PV framework. Empirical testing across diverse markets and property types could validate the model's ability to reflect observed rate differentials. Sensitivity analysis on key inputs ($R_{MTM}$ premium, $r$) should be standard practice when applying the model. Despite its simplifications, the proposed approach offers a valuable, implementable tool for enhancing the analytical rigor of lease pricing strategies in commercial real estate, providing an internally consistent baseline for negotiation and decision-making.


References

  • Fabozzi, F. J. (2007). Fixed Income Analysis (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
  • Grenadier, S. R. (1995). The Persistence of Real Estate Cycles. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 10(2), 95–119.
  • Quigg, L. (1993). Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models. Journal of Finance, 48(2), 621–640.
  • Titman, S. (1985). Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty. The American Economic Review, 75(3), 505–514.

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