CBO's February 2026 baseline: debt held by the public goes from 101% of GDP in 2026 to 120% in 2036. Primary deficit 2.6% of GDP now, 2.1% in 2036. Net interest 3.3% -> 4.6%. Total deficit 5.8% -> 6.7%.
Delta d = d*(i-g)/(1+g) - pb. Effective interest rate on the debt is 3.3/101 = 3.3% in 2026 and 4.6/120 = 3.8% in 2036, against nominal GDP growth of ~3.8-3.9% (1.8% real + 2.0% inflation). So i-g is approximately zero and the debt-stabilizing primary balance is approximately zero.
The gap to close is therefore the primary deficit itself: 2.0-2.5% of GDP. The US does not have an r>g problem over this window. It has a primary deficit problem.