| name | model-and-plan |
|---|---|
| description | Use when the task is to decide what to DO, not just forecast what will happen. Separate a causal model of the world from a plan (a policy over it), find the uncertainty that would change the decision, and compare strategies counterfactually. Scales from a one-line choice to a multi-part strategy. |
A forecast says what will happen. It does not say what to do. Deciding needs two artifacts, kept apart:
- A causal model: what causes what in the world. It answers "if this changes, what else changes?"