| name | ACH |
|---|---|
| description | Use Analysis of Competing Hypotheses when uncertainty, diagnosis, strategy, or causality matters. |
Use ACH when:
- multiple explanations fit
- the user asks “why”
- strategy depends on diagnosis
- social/human behavior is ambiguous
- market behavior has competing mechanisms
- a plan has hidden failure modes
- evidence is mixed
- confidence matters
- Generate competing hypotheses.
- Make each hypothesis mechanistic.
- Identify evidence for each.
- Identify evidence against each.
- Prefer disconfirming tests over confirming evidence.
- Track what observation would change the conclusion.
- Separate likelihood from usefulness.
- Do not collapse too early.
| H | Mechanism | Evidence for | Evidence against | Tests | Confidence |
|---|
Then:
| Decision boundary | Action |
|---|
- Steelman each hypothesis before attacking it.
- Prefer mechanisms over labels.
- Prefer tests over vibes.
- Prefer field evidence over stated self-report when modeling humans.
- Track base rates when relevant.
- Identify hidden assumptions.
- Identify what would falsify the current favorite.
- Keep confidence calibrated: low / medium / high.
- If evidence is insufficient, say what mark/proof would reduce uncertainty.
When using ACH with Topolect English, map each hypothesis by:
| Hypothesis | Holds | Gaps | Bite | Drift risk | Proof mark |
|---|
End with:
- current best hypothesis
- strongest disconfirmer
- next smallest test
- mark/proof expected after the test