day17_2026.R

library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(readxl)
library(readr)
library(ggplot2)
library(lubridate)
library(slider)
source("~/theme.R")

p2 <- "https://www.trade.gov/i-94-arrivals-program"
p1 <- "I-94 monthly international visitor arrivals, 2000-present (Excel file)"

i94 = read_excel("~/Downloads/Monthly Arrivals 2000 to Present – Country of Residence (COR)_1.xlsx",
                 sheet="Monthly")

ilong <- i94 |> 
  select(Area=`International Visitors--\r\n   1) Country of Residence\r\n   2) 1+ nights in the USA\r\n   3)  Among qualified visa types`,
         280:318) |> 
  slice(2,20:254) |> 
  pivot_longer(2:40, names_to = "Mnth", values_to = "arrivals") |> 
  arrange(Area,Mnth) |> 
  group_by(Area) |> 
  mutate(roll12 = slide_dbl(arrivals,.f=mean,.before=11, .complete=TRUE)) |> 
  ungroup()

BASED <- ilong |> 
  filter(Mnth == "2024-11") |> 
  select(Area, baseline=roll12) |> 
  inner_join(ilong, by = join_by(Area)) |> 
  mutate(v2411 = 100*roll12/baseline,
         Dated = ymd(paste0(substr(Mnth,1,7),"-15"))) |> 
  filter(!is.na(v2411), Dated > ymd("2024-11-1"))

interest <- BASED |> 
  filter(Area %in% c("Australia", "Canada", "New Zealand", 
                     "Denmark", "Hungary", "TOTAL ALL COUNTRIES")) |> 
  mutate(Area = ifelse(Area == "TOTAL ALL COUNTRIES", "TOTAL ARRIVALS", Area))

labpoints <- interest |> 
  arrange(Area,desc(Dated)) |> 
  group_by(Area) |> 
  slice(1) |> 
  ungroup() |> 
  mutate(Dated = max(Dated) + days(15))

ggplot(BASED, aes(x=Dated, y=v2411))  +
  geom_line(aes(group=Area), linewidth=0.03, alpha=0.3) +
  theme_david() + theme(legend.position = "none")+
  scale_colour_manual(values = six_cols[c(2,3,2,1,1,3)]) +
  scale_x_date(breaks=as.Date(c("2024-11-15","2025-7-15","2026-3-15")),
               date_labels = "%b %y") +
  scale_linetype_manual(values=c(2,1,1,2,1,2))+
  scale_discrete_manual(aesthetics = "vjust", values = c(1,.5,.5,.5,.5,0))+
  coord_cartesian(ylim=c(70,115), 
                  xlim=c(NA_Date_,as.Date("2026-7-1")))+
  geom_line(data=interest, aes(colour=Area, linetype=Area)) +
  geom_text(data=labpoints,
            aes(colour=Area, label=Area, vjust=Area), size=3,hjust=0) +
  labs(x=NULL, y="Arrivals as % of Nov 2024",
       title="Rolling 12 month I-94 visitors to the US, as percentage of Nov 2024",
       caption=make_footer(paste0("Source: ",p1,"\n",p2)))
ggsave("~/Desktop/ggsky.jpg", width=2016, height=1134, units="px")