betting.py

import sys
from random import randint

win_if_lte = 49
payoff = 2.0

if len(sys.argv) < 2:
    print "Please enter the number of ethereum per bet as the first argument"
    sys.exit(1)

bet_size = float(sys.argv[1])

block_reward = 5.0
percent_of_mining = 0.1


def bet_n_times(n, stake):
    for i in range(n):
        stake -= bet_size
        roll = randint(1,100)
        if roll <= win_if_lte:
            # We won!
            stake += bet_size * payoff
    return stake

def bet_n_times_with_cheat(n, stake, pom):
    eth_mined = 0
    for i in range(n):
        stake -= bet_size
        roll = randint(1,100)
        if roll <= win_if_lte:
            # We won!
            stake += bet_size * payoff
        else:
            if randint(1,100) <= pom * 100:
                # We mined the block that has our losing number in it
                # We get another roll.
                # We're going to give up 5 ether to roll again
                stake -= block_reward
                roll = randint(1,100)
                if roll <= win_if_lte:
                    stake += bet_size * payoff
                    
                    # We still might win this mining race, too
                    if randint(1,100) <= pom * 100:
                        stake += block_reward
                        eth_mined += 1

    return (stake, eth_mined)

trials = 50

for trial in range(trials):
    n_times = bet_n_times(10000, 5000) 
    (n_cheats, mined) = bet_n_times_with_cheat(10000, 5000, 0.1)
    print "10k bets results in net earnings of", n_times - 5000, " if honest and ", n_cheats - 5000, " if cheating with", percent_of_mining, " of mining and bet size of ", bet_size