Prediction ID: 003-558908 Experiment: [003] Claude Sonnet 4.5 Separated Reasoning Market: Will Georgia Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Market ID: 558908
- Question: Will Georgia Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship?
- Description: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team wins the 2026 College Football National Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the College Football National Championship based on the rules of the NCAA (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from NCAA Football, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- End Date: 2026-01-20T00:00:00Z
- Active: Yes
{
"marketId": "558908",
"prediction": {
"marketId": "558908",
"question": "Will Georgia Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship?",
"prediction": {
"outcome": "NO",
"outcomeReasoning": "Georgia Tech has not been a competitive contender for the national championship in recent decades. The Yellow Jackets have not won a national championship since 1990 and have struggled to maintain consistent success in the ACC. In recent seasons (2021-2023), Georgia Tech has posted losing records and has not been ranked in the top 25. The program faces significant challenges including recruiting disadvantages compared to elite programs, limited recent success, and strong competition within the ACC and nationally from powerhouse programs like Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and others. While upsets can occur in college football, winning a national championship requires sustained excellence over an entire season, including navigating conference play and the College Football Playoff. The current market price of 2.4% for YES reflects the extremely low likelihood of this outcome. Historical data shows that teams outside the traditional power programs rarely win national championships in the modern playoff era.",
"confidence": 95,
"confidenceReasoning": "Confidence is very high based on multiple converging factors: (1) Georgia Tech's recent performance history shows no trajectory toward championship contention, (2) The program lacks the recruiting rankings and talent depth of championship-caliber teams, (3) Historical precedent strongly suggests that teams from Georgia Tech's current competitive tier do not win national championships in the modern era, (4) The market itself shows strong consensus at 97.7% NO, indicating informed bettors agree with this assessment, (5) The 2026 championship is far enough away that current roster composition is known and recruiting classes are largely set, providing visibility into program trajectory. The only reason confidence is not 100% is the inherent unpredictability of sports and the theoretical possibility of unprecedented program transformation, though this would be historically anomalous.",
"probability": 2
},
"keyFactors": [
"Georgia Tech's recent performance history and win-loss records",
"Current recruiting rankings and talent acquisition compared to elite programs",
"Strength of competition in the ACC and nationally",
"Historical precedent of national championship winners in the CFP era",
"Program resources, coaching stability, and institutional support",
"Time remaining until 2026 season and current program trajectory",
"Market consensus showing 97.7% probability for NO outcome"
],
"dataQuality": "HIGH",
"lastUpdated": "2025-01-09T00:00:00Z"
},
"predictionDelta": 0.0034999999999999996,
"model": "anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.5"
}- Experiment ID: 003
- Experiment Name: Claude Sonnet 4.5 Separated Reasoning
- Success: Yes
Generated with BetterAI Engine Experiment: 003 | Claude Sonnet 4.5 Separated Reasoning