Full Updated Tag Schema including JTO qualitative report entries spreadsheet link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I_b3TZ9-l-BHba0cVfnKJO-q3tYd_h0iNegqAj2P5bg/edit?usp=sharing
Updated Tagging Schema Repository Table (Includes Two New Calibrated Tags along with all previously completed qualitative reports scored:
| Report Title | Winner/Loser | Primary Tags Used | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE_ Score | BACKER_SIGNAL_ Score | NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION_ Score | FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE_ Score | FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE_ Score | PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT_ Score | Tag Definitions | Note on why each tag is important |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARB Qual Report | Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| FTM Qual Report | Winner | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| GRASS Qual Report | Winner | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 3 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| KAITO Qual Report | Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| MOVE Qual Report | Loser | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| SUI Qual Report | Winner | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
| JTO Qual Report | Winner | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE; BACKER_SIGNAL; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | SUPPLY_SCHEDULE: Token unlock dynamics & circulating supply growth that drive structural sell pressure or scarcity.; BACKER_SIGNAL: Credibility, tier and promotional visibility of investors/backers affecting market confidence.; NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION: Forward looking story or catalyst that drives price reflexively before delivery.; FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE: Observable divergence between usage fundamentals (TVL, txs, DAU) and token price. | These four tags capture supply pressure, investor credibility, reflexive narrative demand, and price-fundamentals divergence core dimensions our LLM needs to learn. |
Methodology refresher & calibration notes 1 · Base scoring (unchanged) We still apply the four core tags exactly as before, using the quantitative rubrics outlined earlier: SUPPLY_SCHEDULE – compute U‑12 (percentage of total supply unlocking in the next 12 months). BACKER_SIGNAL – tier‑weighted sum of investor quality plus an “activation” bonus if they publicly amplify the story. NARRATIVE_EXPECTATION – Hype Multiple (peak/30‑day baseline) and post‑catalyst draw‑down. FUNDAMENTALS_PRICE_DECOUPLE – ρ (Spearman correlation) of weekly %‑Δ TVL vs price over 90 days. Each receives a 1 (weak) / 3 (mixed) / 5 (strong) integer. 2 · New calibration While digesting the JTO report , two insights surfaced that were not cleanly captured by the existing tags yet appear across multiple DeFi launches we study:
| New Tag | Why it matters | Quick metric & scoring rubric |
|---|---|---|
| FIRST_MOVER_ADVANTAGE | Launching materially ahead of direct competitors lets a protocol monopolise liquidity, community mind‑share, and narrative runway. | Lead Δ = days between this TGE and the nearest competing token’s TGE. 5 = ≥30 days lead + dominant share; 3 = 7‑29 days; 1 = ≤7 days or no lead. |
| PRODUCT_MARKET_FIT | Whether demonstrable adoption (TVL, DAUs, revenues) tracks the problem the protocol claims to solve. Crucial for filtering hype from durable value. | Adoption Ratio = 90‑day %‑Δ TVL ÷ %‑Δ price. 5 = ≥0.75 (growth moves together); 3 = 0.25‑0.74; 1 < 0.25. |
We retro‑scored JTO at 5 on both because it launched ~ 8 weeks before the next Solana liquid‑staking competitor and its TVL doubled in lock‑step with price. Scoring notes (methodology applied to each report) ARB First‑Mover Advantage = 1 – Launched well after Optimism, zkSync Era, and other L2s, so no timing edge.
Product‑Market Fit = 1 – TVL kept rising while price bled (ρ ≈ –0.8), giving a negative Adoption Ratio; users kept using the chain yet the token wouldn’t hold value.
FTM / Sonic FMA = 1 – A legacy 2019 chain; the Sonic rebrand didn’t create a head‑start over peers.
PMF = 1 – Post‑upgrade fundamentals improved, but price collapsed > 50 %; Adoption Ratio therefore < 0.25.
GRASS FMA = 5 – First consumer‑grade “bandwidth‑for‑AI” DePIN token; no direct rival for months, capturing the entire narrative.
PMF = 5 – Browser extension installs and active point‑farmers doubled in the same 30‑day window that price 3×, putting the Adoption Ratio > 0.8.
KAITO FMA = 3 – InfoFi/Yaps was novel but overlapped SocialFi incumbents (FriendTech, Stars Arena) within ~2 weeks.
PMF = 3 – Daily Yaps counts grew ~120 % while price +78 %; ratio ~0.6 → mixed but respectable fit.
MOVE FMA = 3 – Marketed a “Move‑VM modular L2” months before any competitor mainnet, yet with no product; partial timing edge.
PMF = 1 – Only 1.2 M txs after launch vs –77 % price; Adoption Ratio near zero.
SUI FMA = 3 – Second object‑oriented L1 after Aptos, but still ahead of the 2024 crop of Move‑based chains.
PMF = 3 – TVL rose in line with price in early run‑up (ratio ~0.5), then stalled—solid but not stellar.
(Rubric recap: 5 ≥ 0.75, 3 = 0.25‑0.74, 1 < 0.25 for PMF; FMA = lead‑time edge as defined earlier.)