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Created December 18, 2024 21:02
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AI Thoughts
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ai_thoughts_2024.md

AI Thoughts

There is no reason to think the progress of AI will slow. See the Universal approximation theorem.

Progression

2016: Andrew Ng said A couple years ago AI was good at doing what Humans could do in a second. Also said AI is like electricity. 2024: Will Roscoe: AI is now good at doing what humans can do in 10 minutes? 2024: Sam Altman: by 2030 you will be able to walk up to a piece of glass and ask it to do something that previously would have taken humans months or years and it will do it in dynamically or in an hour link

How can we think about AI

LLMs are like the invention of the spreadsheet. Spreadsheets didn't get rid of the financial professions but actually made them more valuable.

Predictions

  • The future user interface will be like your interacting with a human but it might not be a human.
  • Email is a natural near term user interface.

Risks

  • See Humans need not apply video.
  • Biggest risk is young people feel like life is pointless and stop having kids.

Excitement

  • We could live in a world of abundance.
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