Your video is 10 minutes (600 seconds) long and an output of 200 MiB is desired. Since bitrate = file size / duration:
(200 MiB * 8192 [converts MiB to kBit]) / 600 seconds = ~2730 kBit/s total bitrate 2730 - 128 kBit/s (desired audio bitrate) = 2602 kBit/s video bitrate
ffmpeg -y -i input -c:v libx264 -preset medium -b:v 2600k -pass 1 -c:a aac -b:a 128k -f mp4 /dev/null
ffmpeg -i input -c:v libx264 -preset medium -b:v 2600k -pass 2 -c:a aac -b:a 128k output.mp4