🧮 `TF2` Item Valuation

Compiled by @zod

key	value
`user`	`REDACTED`
`trust`	Neutral
`date_authored`	2023/03/10

_{obviously it's easy to find out who this was for, just don't bother him please.}

ABSTRACT

I am interested in pricing these unusuals not only for my interest in potentially making purchases, but also so as to analyze market conditions and learn or incept potentially new, innovative and reliable price-tracking metrics. After all, at the end of the day, I just like to code.

VALUATIONS

Here are some of my rudimentary calculations, based on the simple, but effective barometer of

where $SMA = Simple$ $Market$ $Analytic$

_{see calculations further down}

`ITEMS` of INTEREST

So here's what we're looking at.
_{Hint: item images link to their classifieds}

`ITEMS LIST`

Unusualifer: Shred Alert -> 5.63 keys ❔
Green Energy Firearm Protector -> 17.51 keys ❕
Ancient Specter Alakablamicon -> 52.51 keys ❗
Sunbeams Dustbowl Devil -> 106.0 keys ‼️

MARKET ANALYSIS

Now of course it is not that simple. There are a myriad of other factors which could affect the price of an item at a given time.
However, here are the things I look at first. _{let me know your thoughts!}

VALUE PARAMETERS

price: number in keys, metal
volume in the last $X$ months: number (integer) as counter
velocity in the last $Y$ days: number as rate ( $(d/dx)(volume(...))$ )
still_drops: boolean as true | false
sells:
- min: number in keys, metal
- max: number in keys, metal
- num: number (integer) as counter

more statistics here such as range, avg, median, and std. dev.

buys:
- min: number in keys, metal
- max: number in keys, metal
- num: number (integer) as counter

the stats mentioned above, again

num_exist: number (integer) as counter

... and more including effect_set (like halloweens), equipRegion, itemSlot, releaseDelta, etc.

Now, with that obviously decided, I can't analyze all these factors. However, from what I examined, I think it's clear to both of us which hats are the goodies and which are the stinkers.

`FINAL VALUES`

🟢 Sunbeams Dustbowl Devil -> 106.0 keys + (hat is 1/1 ✔️) ~50 keys = 156 keys [QuickSell]
🟡 Ancient Specter Alakablamicon -> 52.51 keys + (hat is 1/12 〰️) + (buy order clumps around 1/2 sell ask ✔️) ~9 keys = 61.91 keys [QuickSell]
🟠 Green Energy Firearm Protector -> 17.51 keys + (hat is 1/3 ✔️) + (still obtainable ❌) + (fairly low buys 〰️) ~0.5 keys = 18.01 keys [QuickSell]
🔴 Unusualifer: Shred Alert -> 5.63 keys + (Tauntifier ❌❌) ~0 keys = 5.63 keys [QuickSell]

Woof... That took a while. Fun though.

CONCLUSION

I am interested in the Unusualifier, the Firearm Protector, and potentially the AS Alakablamicon depending on negotiation.
Please contact me on Steam or Discord at zod#1626.

P.S.

Regardless of if we decide to trade now, I think there could be a future in us making some agreement wherein I could assist you in turning all your assorted hats back into (of course a middling amount of) pure. Only if you are interested of course.

-- @zod

`PYTHON CALC`

jason@pc2strong:~$  python
Python  3.10.10  (main,  Feb  8  2023,  14:50:01)  [GCC  9.4.0]  on  linux  
>>>  shred  =  (6  +  5.25)  /  2  
>>>  green_frm  =  (28  +  7.01)  /  2  
>>>  aala  =  (70  +  35.01)  /  2  
>>>  sundust  =  (200  +  12)  /  2  
>>>  print(f"shred:  {shred}")  
shred:  5.625  
>>>  print(f"GE  fireman:  {green_frm}")  
GE  fireman:  17.505  
>>>  print(f"AS  alaka:  {aala}")  
AS  alaka:  52.504999999999995  
>>>  print(f"beams  dustbowl:  {sundust}")  
beams  dustbowl:  106.0  
>>>  sum  =  shred  +  green_frm  +  aala  
>>>  print(f"all  but  sundust:  {sum}")  
all  but  sundust:  75.63499999999999  
>>> quit()

zod.tf
fullstack dev w/ specialty in tf2. Server hosting, trading bot solutions, pricing algorithms; any custom tf2 / steam integration

zudsniper/TF_VALUATION.md

🧮 TF2 Item Valuation

ABSTRACT

VALUATIONS

ITEMS of INTEREST

ITEMS LIST