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November 5, 2019 16:15
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deep dive into a terrible graphic (laffer curve)
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tax_rate | tax_rev | |
---|---|---|
0.07357329 | -0.0567062 | |
8.81285407 | 2.4505785 | |
12.84385295 | 3.5807126 | |
16.23680790 | 2.1860302 | |
19.18260073 | 2.4643621 | |
19.29050823 | 1.9514672 | |
18.45218145 | 1.2480201 | |
26.73285538 | 1.5886201 | |
22.37159417 | 3.3657369 | |
25.35785231 | 2.8740010 | |
23.20419858 | 5.7879019 | |
28.31835981 | 10.0210381 | |
30.29993378 | 5.7198302 | |
28.31631610 | 4.8265564 | |
27.46000474 | 3.4932956 | |
28.39888169 | 3.1676883 | |
29.23925217 | 3.6168644 | |
30.38903921 | 3.7964138 | |
33.25063150 | 5.5009854 | |
30.34612146 | 3.1687765 | |
30.42623460 | 2.8969737 | |
34.29700720 | 3.5799872 | |
35.32498958 | 3.3917323 | |
34.79607936 | 3.0661250 | |
33.30172407 | 2.7568404 | |
33.23959551 | 2.2382628 | |
34.29087609 | 2.2232701 | |
35.43003589 | 2.1847002 | |
35.40428524 | 2.7835612 |
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# context: https://twitter.com/realwokieleaks/status/1057798810804645893 | |
# load data | |
dat <- read.csv("dat.csv") | |
# data slurped using the digitize R package | |
# "normal" fit | |
b <- gam(tax_rev~s(tax_rate), data=dat, method="REML") | |
# yes ignoring that the response is >0 for now... | |
# plot that, yeah that seems like it's okay? | |
par(mfrow=c(1,2)) | |
plot(b, xlim=c(0, 50), ylim=c(0, 10), shift=coef(b)[1], shade=TRUE, main="not silly") | |
# which points shall we uber weight? | |
text(dat, labels=1:nrow(dat)) | |
# UAE is 1 | |
# Norway is 12 | |
weights <- rep(1, nrow(dat)) | |
weights[1] <- 1e5 | |
weights[12] <- 1e5 | |
# maxing out basis complexity, using weights | |
b_w <- gam(tax_rev~s(tax_rate, k=nrow(dat)-1), data=dat, method="REML", weights=weights) | |
plot(b_w, xlim=c(0, 50), ylim=c(0, 10), shift=coef(b)[1], n=200, shade=TRUE, main="silly") | |
points(dat) |
Sadly, the link at the top of the code doesn't yield the original graphic since some tweets have been deleted. Is it possible to archive that figure with this too, i.e., this link https://twitter.com/rlmcelreath/status/1191649370569166848 or ideally something more permanent.
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Produces this graphic:
