dill

# Markov Random Fields with temporal interactions
# based on https://gist.github.com/dill/ecfe7d2f0e542bb274ff

# David L Miller 2020
# Released under MIT license, YMMV


# example from ?mgcv::smooth.construct.mrf.smooth.spec
library(mgcv)
## Load Columbus Ohio crime data (see ?columbus for details and credits)

dill

# extrapolating into the future with B-splines
#  based on code in ?smooth.construct.bs.smooth.spec

library(mgcv)

# annual diameter of women’s skirts at the hem 1866 to 1911
# Hipel and McLeod, 1994
skirts <- scan("http://robjhyndman.com/tsdldata/roberts/skirts.dat",skip=5)
skirtseries <- data.frame(year=1866:1911, diam=skirts)

dill

library(mgcv)
set.seed(2) ## simulate some data...
dat <- gamSim(1,n=400,dist="normal",scale=2)
b <- gam(y~s(x1), data=dat, fit=FALSE)

newpred <- data.frame(x1=seq(0, 10, length.out=100))

# Lp for the data
lp_data <- PredictMat(b$smooth[[1]], dat)

dill

# Tax data from NYT article

# data scraped from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/06/opinion/income-tax-rate-wealthy.html

# load data scraped from SVG
tax <- readLines("taxdat.dat")


taxy <- c()
for(i in 1:length(tax)){

dill

# generate some relaxing cloudy sky squares
#
# David Lawrence Miller (2019)

library(INLA)
library(ggplot2)

## function to simulate spatial fields
simdat <- function(n, seed, prior.range = c(5, .05),
                   prior.sigma = c(.05, .05)){

dill

# data digitized from https://twitter.com/nberpubs/status/1062080096549261312
# thanks @tpoi and co! https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/digitize/index.html

# load the above data
dat <- read.csv("nber.csv")

# it's ya boi, mgcv
library(mgcv)

# fit the next stupidest model

dill

dill

dill

# average predictions
library(Distance)
library(dsm)

# download data from http://workshops.distancesampling.org/stand-intermed-2018/practicals/spermwhale.RData
load("spermwhale.RData")

# make sure we get the same results every time
set.seed(123)

dill

# little animation to illustrate uncertainty in a density map

library(dsm)
library(mvtnorm)
library(ggplot2)
library(animation)
library(viridis)
library(cowplot)

set.seed(1997)