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September 12, 2023 22:13
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illustrate tail sensitivity of Bayes (from McElreath)
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post_prior <- function(m_pr, m_lik, sd_pr, sd_lik, df_pr, df_lik, | |
xlim = c(-5, 15), n = 1001, ttl = "",...) { | |
xvec <- seq(xlim[1], xlim[2], length.out = n) | |
tfun <- function(x,m,s,df, ...) dt((x-m)/s, df) | |
prvec <- tfun(xvec, m_pr, sd_pr, df_pr) | |
likvec <- tfun(xvec, m_lik, sd_lik, df_lik) | |
postvec <- prvec*likvec/(sum(prvec*likvec)*diff(xvec[1:2])) | |
matplot(xvec, cbind(prvec, likvec, postvec), | |
type = "l", | |
lty = c(2,1,1), | |
col = c(1,1,2), | |
lwd = c(1,1,2), | |
ylab = "density", | |
...) | |
title(ttl) | |
pmax = max(max(likvec), max(prvec)) | |
text(0, pmax, "likelihood") | |
text(10, pmax, "prior") | |
} | |
par(las = 1, bty = "l") | |
par(mfrow=c(2,2)) | |
post_prior(10, 0, 1, 1, 1000,1000, ttl="prior:N, lik:N") # log = "y") | |
post_prior(10, 0, 1, 1, 2, 2, ttl="prior:T, lik:T") #, log = "y") | |
post_prior(10, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1000, ttl="prior:T, lik:N") | |
post_prior(10, 0, 1, 1, 1000, 2, ttl="prior:N, lik:T") | |
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You are right.
Or we could use a library for probability distributions that takes care of all this for us.
like this:
https://colab.research.google.com/github/gerdm/misc/blob/master/2023-09/bayes-tails.ipynb