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Estimating Gemini 3.5 Flash size via IKP

Date: 2026-05-20. Working session attempt to replicate Bojie Li's Incompressible Knowledge Probes (IKP) methodology and apply it to google/gemini-3.5-flash.

Goal

Use IKP — black-box factual-recall probes → log-linear size estimate — to estimate Gemini 3.5 Flash's parameter count, and verify the methodology by replicating models IKP already measured.

Sources used

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## Kiss the Night

Through fingers of ordinary days
You watch the world slip by
In rushing haste, you lose your dreams
Your laughter makes you shy
So you would rather never laugh
Than risk a moment's fool
Try just once
Unveil your face

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The Design of Everyday Things: Revised and Expanded Edition (Norman, Don)
- Your Highlight on page 101 | location 2210-2212 | Added on Wednesday, 11 May 2016 21:05:40

It is a profoundly erroneous truism, repeated by all copy-books and by eminent people when they are making speeches, that we should cultivate the habit of thinking of what we are doing. The precise opposite is the case. Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them. (Alfred North Whitehead, 1911.)
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The Design of Everyday Things: Revised and Expanded Edition (Norman, Don)
- Your Highlight on page 111 | location 2395-2396 | Added on Saturday, 18 June 2016 19:33:53

unless it is triggered by some external event or unless we deliberately keep it in mind through constant repetition (which then prevents us from having other conscious thoughts).
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---
title: "Metal bands bring happiness"
output: html_notebook
author: "Piotr Migdał"
---

```{r}
library(ggplot2)
library(ggrepel)
```

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# Homebrew - the package manager
/bin/bash -c "$(curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Homebrew/install/HEAD/install.sh)"
eval "$(/opt/homebrew/bin/brew shellenv)"

# Rosetta - for running apps not native to M1 arm64
/usr/sbin/softwareupdate --install-rosetta --agree-to-license

# Terminal improvement
brew install fish
sudo sh -c 'echo /opt/homebrew/bin/fish >> /etc/shells'

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language: node_js
node_js: node

before_script:
  - npm install -g typescript
  - npm install codecov -g

script:
  - yarn lint
  - yarn build

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export {}

declare global {
  namespace jest {
    interface Matchers<R> {
      myMatcher: (received: string) => R
    }
  }
}

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50-50 Beamsplitter

Optical devices used to split a single beam of laser light into two beams, or to recombine two beams into one.

{
  "cols": 4,
  "rows": 3,
  "cells": [
 {

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